Bitcoin investors’ expectations evolve as 88% of BTC supply is in profit

Key Takeaways:

• 88% of Bitcoin’s supply is in profit below $95,000, indicating a reset in investor expectations.
• The current price range of $75,000–$95,000 may represent a structural bottom, aligning with market conditions from Q3 2024.
• The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio at 1.74 acts as a historical support zone, signaling cooling unrealized gains and potential for future growth.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) market dynamics are shifting, as Glassnode data reveals that 88% of the supply is currently in profit, with losses concentrated among buyers in the $95,000-$100,000 range. This high profitability, rebounding from a long-term mean of 75%, indicates a reset in investor expectations

Bitcoin percent supply in profit. Source: X.comBitcoin's price staged a recovery from its long-term cumulative mean percentage in profit, marking a notable shift. Previously, in August 2024, Bitcoin retested the 75% mean at around $60,000. This suggests that the price range of $75,000–$95,000 may represent the bottom, aligning with the structural market conditions observed in Q3 2024.

Confirming the decrease in holder sales through exchanges, the total exchange flow (inflow + outflow) to network activity ratio provides further insight. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. explained that the chart shows a 1.5x decrease in ratio following Bitcoin’s all-time high, directly confirming that the current growth is more organic.

Bitcoin exchange flows to the network activity ratio. Source: Axel Adler Jr. The analyst explained that, unlike previous price peaks, where a high ratio (marked by orange bars) signaled heavy selling, current levels show no such urgency, reinforcing a more stable market environment.

High profitability and reduced exchange inflows indicate diminished selling pressure from holders, enabling an improved holder’s mindset between $75,000 and $95,000. This suggests that investors viewed BTC as undervalued and not as an exit opportunity, which aligned with the broader bullish sentiment.

Related: Watch these Bitcoin price levels as BTC meets ‘decision point’

BTC data hint at cooling unrealized gains under $95K

Glassnode noted that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, a key market sentiment indicator, has returned to its long-term mean of 1.74. Historically, this level has been a support zone (since January 2024) during consolidation phases, signaling a cooling of unrealized gains and a potential base for future growth.

Bitcoin MVRV ratio bands. Source: X.comSimilarly, the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio is neutral at 0.5 with Bitcoin priced at $94,400, in contrast to its overbought signal when BTC was previously at this level in February 2025.

This shift in market dynamics and evolving holder behavior indicates that the current cohort of profitable investors may be less inclined to sell at these levels. This could further strengthen the bullish case of the present market structure.

Bitcoin NVT golden cross. Source: CryptoQuantRelated: BTC dominance due ‘collapse’ at 71%: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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