US stocks are all rising, Ethereum fluctuates for 25 days or may recreate the mid-2021 market trend

Market Observation

U.S. stocks rose across the board on Tuesday, with technology stocks performing particularly well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, as one tech giant's market capitalization once again surpassed that of another tech giant, reclaiming its status as the world's most valuable publicly traded company, with a current market cap of $3.45 trillion. Hong Kong stocks related to stablecoins continued to strengthen, with several related companies' stock prices significantly rising.

An economist predicts that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts until December, but it could opt for a significant cut of 50 basis points at that time. He believes that the impact of tariffs on inflation will be one-off and will not continuously affect the economy. In addition, the OECD has significantly lowered its economic growth forecast for the United States to 1.6% and warned that the trade policies of a certain political figure are dragging down global economic development. Investors are closely watching the employment report for May, which is set to be released this Friday, to assess the economic situation.

An analyst indicated that 2025 will be a key point for generative AI to transition from technological breakthroughs to widespread application. Currently, AI is primarily used in the financial sector for traditional asset management and quantitative trading, but in the future, it is expected to better adapt to the digital asset market through optimizing market-making strategies. Furthermore, building AI-enabled Web3 infrastructure, such as smart contract security audits and digital content assetization, will promote the synergistic development of AI and the Web3 ecosystem.

The Bitcoin market is experiencing increased volatility, showing a short-term upward trend. In terms of the political environment, both Poland and South Korea have elected presidents who support cryptocurrencies. Although market news is mostly positive, there has been no significant rise in Bitcoin prices. The head of digital asset research at a certain bank has issued a warning that currently, 61 listed companies hold a total of 673,800 Bitcoins, accounting for 3.2% of the total supply. If the price of Bitcoin falls below 22% of these companies' average purchase price, it may trigger forced selling by the firms. This indicates that although corporate holdings have increased buying pressure, they also pose a potential risk for sell-offs.

Ethereum has been relatively stable, oscillating around $2600 for 25 days. The US Ethereum ETF has increased its holdings for 12 consecutive days, with a certain asset management company owning about $4 billion in ETH through the ETF. Analysis shows that Ethereum may be approaching a critical turning point, facing a choice between upward or downward movement. On-chain data indicates that a suspected whale or institution has purchased 108,278 Ether (about $283 million) via OTC. An OTC wallet of a certain digital asset company withdrew 89,000 ETH (about $234 million) from exchanges in the past 12 hours and then transferred a total of 108,278 ETH to a specific address.

An analyst pointed out that Ethereum is trying to hold $2,500 as a support level and consolidate it as the low point of the macro range between $2,500 and $4,000. The current trend is similar to a certain stage in mid-2021, and if successful, Ethereum may enter a new round of range-bound market.

A certain research institution pointed out that although Bitcoin continues to refresh its historical highs attracting institutional funds, the altcoin market has stagnated, with ongoing token unlocks and a lack of new narratives becoming bottlenecks for development. A certain public chain token has recently performed poorly, oscillating around 150 dollars. Its meme coin platform plans to raise 1 billion dollars through token sales, with a valuation reaching 4 billion dollars. Although the official has not confirmed the specific sale time, the platform's social accounts suggest that it may go live within two weeks, which could lead to pressure on the entire ecosystem due to capital outflows.

It is worth noting that early this morning, there were reports that a certain political figure would launch a branded crypto wallet and trading application to encourage supporters to purchase Meme coins. This news led to a temporary pump of 40% for a certain NFT trading platform's token. However, the political figure's family subsequently denied any association with the project, causing the token to pull back nearly 20% from its peak.

Key Data (As of June 4, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $105,723 (year-to-date +12.73%), daily spot trading volume $25.243 billion
• Ethereum: $2,616.39 (year-to-date -21.69%), daily spot trading volume is $14.58 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 57 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 2.63 sat/vB ETH: 4.36 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 63.1%, Ether 9.6%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0247
• Sector Fluctuations: AI down 2.1%; Meme down 1.67%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 68,138 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 148 million USD, including BTC liquidations of 25.52 million USD, ETH liquidations of 35.96 million USD, and SOL liquidations of 8.75 million USD.
• BTC Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper Line of the Channel (106908.13 USD), Lower Line of the Channel (104791.13 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (2588.05 USD), lower channel line (2536.80 USD)

Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly crosses the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

ETF Flows (as of June 3)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$378 million (ending a 3-day outflow)
• Ethereum ETF: +$109 million (net inflow for 12 consecutive days)

Today's Outlook

• A trading platform will launch Lagrange (LA)
• A trading platform will delist multiple perpetual contracts on June 5.
• Multiple projects will unlock tokens in the near future.
• The U.S. ADP employment figures and initial jobless claims for May will be released soon.

Top 500 market cap biggest rise today: 0×0.ai (0×0) rose by 67.69%, Acet (ACT) rose by 28.59%, Alchemist AI (ALCH) rose by 23.39%, Magic Eden (ME) rose by 22.03%, Animecoin (ANIME) rose by 21.70%.

Hot News

• Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $109 million yesterday, marking the 12th consecutive day of net inflow.
• It is suspected that a certain institution has purchased over 100,000 pieces of Ether through OTC and currently holds nearly 140,000 pieces of Ether.
• A certain asset management company's Bitcoin spot ETF has entered the top 25 ETFs in the United States, with assets reaching $72.4 billion in just 1.4 years.
• Spanish coffee chain Vanadi plans to invest over $1.1 billion to purchase Bitcoin, transforming into a "Bitcoin-first" company.
• A political figure's family denies involvement in a specific wallet project, and the related platform responds that it is an official collaboration.
• CEO of a certain image processing company: At the end of last year, liquidated cryptocurrencies to make a profit of 570 million yuan, of which 80% was distributed as dividends to shareholders.
• A stablecoin company transferred over 37,000 BTC to a capital firm, worth nearly $4 billion.
• The Sonic airdrop will start in June, with 25% released immediately and the remaining 75% unlocked linearly in NFT form.
• The CEO of a certain project has stepped down, and a former executive of a certain exchange platform has taken over.
• Strategy plans to issue 2.5 million shares of "Stride" preferred stock to increase its Bitcoin holdings.
• Insider: A certain project plans to raise $1 billion through token sales, with a valuation of $4 billion.
• Ethereum co-founder claims to be in talks with sovereign wealth funds for infrastructure collaboration