May 2025 Crypto Market Analysis Report

1. Macroscopic Perspective

In May 2025, the macroeconomy of the United States is at a critical turning point. Inflation continues to decline, the labor market remains resilient, monetary policy enters a period of observation, trade policies bring uncertainty, and fiscal measures affect market expectations through operations similar to quantitative easing and adjustments in debt ratings. Against this backdrop, the crypto market demonstrates strong pressure resistance, and the structure of global risk assets may face a new round of re-evaluation.

inflation trend

In April, the unadjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.3% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of 2.4%, marking a new low since February 2021, indicating that price pressures are continuing to ease. The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, also slightly below expectations, showing insufficient momentum for inflation to rebound in the short term. At the same time, the U.S. Treasury initiated a $40 billion Treasury bond repurchase operation, widely seen by the market as a "similar quantitative easing" measure, aimed at releasing liquidity through the repurchase of issued Treasury bonds and refinancing at low interest rates in a new round. This operation has become an important factor supporting the prices of risk assets.

labor market

In April 2025, non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 138,000, reflecting the resilience of the labor market. This data provides a basis for the Federal Reserve to maintain a wait-and-see approach to policy. The Federal Reserve closely monitors employment data as a reference for policy adjustments. Continued strong employment alleviates concerns about an economic downturn on one hand, and on the other hand, it reduces the likelihood of multiple unexpected rate cuts within the year.

monetary policy dynamics

The Federal Reserve Chairman stated that it will reassess the current monetary policy framework and may abandon the "average inflation targeting" mechanism. He pointed out that frequent supply-side shocks such as tariffs, geopolitical issues, and energy transitions are changing the traditional policy environment, prompting the Fed to focus more on structural inflation risks. In the future, the Fed may extend the duration of high interest rates and even increase its holdings of medium- and long-term government bonds to control the rise in long-term rates. The policy tone will be more flexible, with no urgent need for preventive rate cuts in the short term, and it emphasized that the direction of policy in June will be determined based on multiple economic indicators.

( Trade Policy and Global Economic Outlook

In early May, the United States announced a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, which was later postponed to July 9, but the high tariff threat has already impacted market sentiment. Given the frequent fluctuations in trade policy previously, the uncertainty regarding future policy directions has significantly increased. In China, the central bank implemented a "reserve requirement ratio cut + interest rate cut" policy in May, releasing 1 trillion yuan in liquidity and lowering the policy interest rate to 1.4%. This move is seen as the start of a new round of easing cycle, with market expectations for improved China-U.S. relations heating up and risk appetite simultaneously increasing.

) summary

In May 2025, the U.S. economy enters a critical turning point:

• Inflation continues to decline, and expectations for easing are rising.
• Strong employment supports a wait-and-see approach to monetary policy
• Fiscal policy "quantitative easing" operations, combined with a dovish tone from the Federal Reserve, jointly suppressing market interest rates.
• Global trade frictions have resurfaced, but the restoration of Sino-US relations has increased market risk appetite.

In the crypto market, with the marginal improvement of the macro funding environment and continuous inflows into ETFs, the price of Bitcoin has surpassed its historical high of $111,959. The resonance of current macro policies and global financial trends may be helping the crypto market to embark on a new cycle based on structural fund repricing.

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2. Crypto Market Overview

( coin data analysis

)# Trading Volume and Daily Growth Rate

As of May 27, the market's average daily trading volume was $117.4 billion, an increase of 15.8% compared to the previous period, indicating a continued recovery in capital activity, with the overall market exhibiting high volatility characteristics. During this period, there were multiple instances of single-day trading volume increases exceeding 50%. In two phases, from May 6 to 12 and from May 21 to 22, trading volume surged significantly, with single-day trading volume once breaking through $180 billion. During this time, BTC prices broke through $100,000 and $110,000 respectively, and market bullish sentiment significantly heated up, leading to a concentrated release of trading momentum in the short term.

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(# Total market capitalization and daily growth

As of May 27, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has rebounded to $3.56 trillion, an increase of 17.0% compared to last month, with a significant rise in total market value. Among them, BTC's market share is 62.6%, and ETH's market share is 9.6%, the latter having grown by 29.7% compared to the previous period, indicating a sustained preference for ETH in this round of funding allocation. Since May 8, the total market capitalization has risen above $3.3 trillion, and has since been steadily increasing, with a clear trend of structural market recovery.

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( New Popular Tokens Launched in May

Among the popular tokens launched in May, projects with venture capital backgrounds still dominate, including Layer2 projects SOPH and B2. Additionally, USD1, as one of the popular narratives in May, along with the stablecoin USD1 and its associated projects such as B, Lista, and Staketone, have also garnered widespread attention in the market.

3. On-chain Data Analysis

) Analysis of the inflow and outflow of 3.1 BTC and ETH ETF

BTC ETF inflow of $5.77 billion

In May, as the United States reached a phased suspension agreement on tariff policies with multiple countries, market sentiment significantly improved, driving Bitcoin prices to rebound strongly and reach a historical high of $111,959. As of May 28, Bitcoin's price increased from $94,212 to $108,969 within the month, a rise of approximately 13.5%. Meanwhile, the overall funds for Bitcoin spot ETFs showed a net inflow trend, with a cumulative inflow of about $5.77 billion in May.

ETH ETF inflow of $317 million

In terms of Ethereum, benefiting from the expectations of the Pectra upgrade and the easing of macro policies, the price increase is more significant. As of May 28, ETH rose from $1,794 at the beginning of the month to $2,635, an increase of 31.9%. The Ethereum spot ETF also attracted capital inflows, with a net inflow of approximately $317 million in May.

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( 3.2 Analysis of Stablecoin Inflows and Outflows

In May, stablecoin inflows amounted to approximately $7.28 billion, mainly from USDT and USDC. In May, with the pause of tariff policies in the United States, the easing of macro policies led to a significant correction in the crypto market. The stablecoin market continued its strong growth momentum. Among them, USDT, USDE, and DAI became the main drivers of growth this month.

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4. Price Analysis of Major Currencies

( 4.1 BTC price change analysis

Bitcoin is struggling to maintain above $109,588, indicating that every slight pullback sees buying interest. Bitcoin has risen for seven consecutive weeks, and if buyers can extend this trend into the eighth week, it will pave the way for further gains. Institutional investors see long-term opportunities and continue to inject funds into Bitcoin exchange-traded products.

Bitcoin bulls are working hard to push and maintain the price above $109,588, indicating that every dip is being bought. The rising moving averages and an RSI approaching the overbought zone suggest that the path of least resistance is upward. If buyers can push the price up to $111,980, the BTC/USDT trading pair could soar to $130,000.

On the downside, the 20-day EMA ($104,886) is a key support level to watch. If the price falls and closes below the 20-day EMA, it may entice short-term investors to take profits, leading to a drop in price to the psychological level of $100,000, where strong buying is expected to form solid support.

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( 4.2 ETH price change analysis

Ethereum bounced back from the 20-day EMA ($2,425) on May 25, indicating strong demand at lower price levels. The bulls will attempt to break through the resistance level of $2,738 again. If successful, the ETH/USDT trading pair could soar to $3,000, although the bears may try to halt the rise near $2,850.

If the price pulls back from the current level or encounters resistance and falls below the 20-day EMA, it indicates that the bulls' control is weakening. In this case, the price may drop to $2,323 and then further to $2,111.

![BitMart VIP Insights | May Crypto Market Analysis])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-6a6780fc7ff4947dbd31cb50b03c3486.webp###

( 4.3 SOL Price Change Analysis

Solana found support at the 20-day EMA ($169) on May 25, indicating that market sentiment remains positive, with traders buying on slight pullbacks. Bulls will once again attempt to break through the resistance at $188. If successful, the SOL/USDT trading pair could soar to $210, and potentially reach $220.

However, sellers need to push the price below the 20-day EMA to prevent further rises. Once the price breaks below this support level, it may drop to the 50-day SMA ($151), which could act as strong support. If there is a rebound from the 50-day SMA, it may lead to the price consolidating in a range between $153 and $188 for some time.

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5. Hot Events of the Month

( USD1 ecology

In mid-May, as the price of BTC broke its historical high and the launch of USD1 on a certain trading platform caused its popularity to soar, the USD1 ecosystem cooperative projects also attracted market attention. As of May 28, 2025, the market value of the USD1 stablecoin has surpassed 2.1 billion dollars, rising to become the seventh largest stablecoin. Although there is no significant difference in the mechanism design of USD1 compared to other mainstream stablecoins, its core advantage lies in being issued by WLFI, led by the Trump family, making it the first stablecoin project endorsed by a president.

The current narrative surrounding USD1 mainly revolves around "presidential endorsement + RWA track + expectations for stablecoin legislation." The WLFI official positioning of USD1 is primarily aimed at institutional users, while for retail investors, participating in projects within the USD1 ecosystem presents better opportunities for benefit. Recently, the prices of several tokens related to USD1's partners, such as Buildon, Lista DAO, StakeStone, Haedal, and Cookie, have seen significant increases, driving the market's enthusiasm for the "WLFI+USD1" concept. If the U.S. stablecoin legislation is successfully passed in the future, USD1, as a stablecoin project personally endorsed by the president, along with its deeply partnered projects, is expected to occupy a more significant position in the future crypto ecosystem.

) Believe has risen to become a new force in the MEME platform.

As of May 28, the core token Launchcoin of the Believe platform has risen from $0.014 at the beginning of the month to a peak of $0.36, with a market capitalization approaching $310 million at one point, making it one of the MEME coins with the largest increase recently. The platform was created by Ben Pasternak and focuses on the concept of "social assetization", where users can automatically trigger token issuance by tweeting with $TICKER and @launchcoin on the X platform.

With the innovative token issuance mechanism and the surge of Launchcoin, the activity level of the Believe platform has rapidly increased, with coins like Dupe and Goonc following suit. The number of newly issued tokens on the platform has jumped to third place among MEME platforms. However, the token $YAPPER, which was overly supported by the Believe team, plummeted over 66% after its launch, triggering community FUD and leading to a sharp decline in ecological enthusiasm. As of May 28, Believe has issued over 27,000 tokens, with a total market value of approximately $290 million, where Launchcoin contributes nearly 63%, and its trading volume accounts for almost 72% of the ecological total. It is evident that the popularity of the platform tokens heavily relies on the market performance of LAUNCHCOIN. However, this platform token has been criticized for lacking dividends and practical application scenarios, leading to significant doubts in the community about its long-term sustainability. Once the market