Bitcoin on a tightrope! SSR hits a new high in months warning about liquidity, $120,000 becomes the battleground for bulls and bears | BTC price prediction

Bitcoin ( BTC ) is currently reported at $119,000. Although it maintains an upward trend line, the stablecoin supply ratio ( SSR ) is approaching a multi-month high, suggesting insufficient incremental ammunition. The miner sell pressure index ( MPI ) has sharply dropped by 32% to -1.06, indicating reluctance to sell, but the MVRV Z value has risen to 2.83, indicating a profit-taking risk. There are $1.4 billion long positions liquidated in the $120,000-$122,000 range, and the liquidity minefield may trigger extreme fluctuations.

Technical Analysis: The rising channel has not been broken, but the buffer zone is narrowing.

BTC price is currently trading in the range of $118,000 - $119,000, with key technical indicators sending conflicting signals:

• Support structure: Still holding the rising trend line, the turning point of the parabolic SAR ( is located below the price, and the trend has not been broken.
• Key buffer: The range of $116,800 - $114,800 constitutes the last line of defense, and a daily close below will reverse the technical structure.
• Momentum Divergence: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Indicator ) MACD ( maintains a slight bullish outlook, but the upward space is constrained by Liquidity.

)# On-chain Alert: SSR Soars and MVRV Risk

![]###https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-87a9b3933a-9be4eb0c1c-153d09-7649e1(

Two major on-chain indicators light up yellow.

1. The stablecoin supply ratio ) SSR ( has reached a new high in months: reflecting the continuous weakening of stablecoin purchasing power for BTC, with a lack of incremental funds entering the market, limiting upward momentum.
2. MVRV Z value rises to 2.83: Holders' unrealized profits are at a high level, although it has not reached the extreme threshold of 3.5, the risk of selling pressure from profits significantly increases.

Historical data shows that such combinations of indicators are likely to trigger local tops, especially in the absence of new funding support.

![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-87a9b3933a-2a75020baa-153d09-7649e1(

)# Miners and Leverage: The Battle of Long and Short Positions Intensifies

• Miner Position: Miner Selling Pressure Index ### MPI ( fell 32% to -1.06 in 24 hours, indicating strong reluctance to sell among miners, providing short-term relief from selling pressure.
• Derivatives Risk: The mainstream CEX BTC/USDT contracts have formed a $1.4 billion long positions liquidation zone at $120,000-$122,000 (Source: CoinGlass)

  • If the upward momentum is weak, it may trigger a long positions liquidation.

  • If there is a strong breakout, then short positions will be closed or it will boost the upward trend.

    ![])https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-87a9b3933a-bc0ce00d57-153d09-7649e1(

)# Future Market Path: Breakthrough in the Liquidity Predicament

The technical trend of BTC has not been broken, but it faces triple pressure:

1. The liquidity support for stablecoins is weak (SSR is high).
2. Holder profit-taking motivation increases (MVRV Z value rises)
3. Key resistance zone hiding a large amount of leveraged liquidations (120,000 - 122,000 Get Liquidated zone)

Long positions need to hold the position between 116,800 and 114,800, and attract incremental funds to break through the 122,000 liquidation wall to open up space. If the support is lost or the attack fails, it may trigger a deep pullback.

Conclusion:

Bitcoin maintains a rising trend under the factors of miners' reluctance to sell and technical support, but the SSR and MVRV indicators reveal dual concerns of liquidity scarcity and profit-taking pressure. The 120,000-122,000 USD liquidation zone has become the frontline for the battle between bulls and bears, and a breakthrough requires substantial buying support. Traders should be wary of extreme fluctuations caused by liquidity landmines and strictly adhere to stop-loss strategies to guard against technical breakdown risks. Whether the on-chain alerts can be resolved and the leverage stronghold can be breached will determine whether BTC continues its slow bull trend or undergoes a deep washout.