Bettors Bet Big on Vance and Newsom: 2028 US Election Race Heats up Before It Even Starts

Even with the 2028 election still more than three years off, prediction markets are already brimming with wagers. Currently, Polymarket participants are placing their bets on J.D. Vance to secure the Republican nomination, while Gavin Newsom is emerging as the top contender on the left. Naturally, with so much time before the big day, these probabilities could certainly experience significant changes.

Prediction Markets Pick Vance and Newsom—but Don’t Count Out Chaos

Even though Donald Trump is officially the 47th U.S. president—and the Twenty-second Amendment clearly says “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice”—Polymarket traders aren’t quite ruling him out. Believe it or not, they’re giving him a slim 4% shot at another White House comeback. Meanwhile, the same betting platform paints a different picture for 2028: J.D. Vance is stealing the spotlight with a 27% shot at victory, putting him ahead of the pack.

Trailing behind is California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 14%, though his odds have just slipped by 1%. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) holds a 10% chance, edging out Pete Buttigieg, who sits at 8%. Meanwhile, Marco Rubio is showing a slight upward tick to 6%, giving him a modest boost in this speculative race. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro lags at 5%, while former U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris rounds out the field with a quiet 4%.

Over on Kalshi’s prediction market for the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is holding the top spot with an 18% chance—though not by an overwhelming margin. AOC isn’t far behind at 14%, ticking up a point and tightening the race. Pete Buttigieg sits comfortably in third at 10%, while Maryland Gov. Wes Moore is in striking distance at 7%.

Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff is showing some momentum, climbing two points to 6%, now tied with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who dipped a point. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris trails the pack at just 4%, with little sign of upward movement. With nearly $11.2 million in volume behind these bets, traders appear divided and uncertain—though Newsom’s lead remains intact for now.

On Polymarket’s betting board for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, J.D. Vance is running away with it—clocking in at a commanding 56%, despite dipping 1 point. The rest of the field isn’t even close. Marco Rubio has inched up to 7%, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 6%, also climbing 1 point.

Donald Trump, again, surprisingly, holds just 5%, down a tick, suggesting bettors don’t expect another run. Donald Trump Jr. follows with 4%, tied with Glenn Youngkin. Tulsi Gabbard and Nikki Haley each sit at 2%, with Gabbard gaining slightly. With the spread this wide, the market appears heavily skewed toward a Vance nomination—making everyone else look like a long shot.

As betting markets sketch out early favorites for 2028, they reveal more than just frontrunners—they expose the shifting expectations, biases, and uncertainties of political speculators. With billions likely to flow through these platforms in the years ahead, today’s odds may end up being little more than historical curiosities, snapshots of a moment when everything still felt wide open.