MSTR Risk Level Hits 0.812 As Price Moves Near 2021 Highs Again

MSTR reached a risk value of 0.812 while the price moved close to the levels seen in early 2021.

The chart shows all major peaks since 2000 came with high risk scores followed by steep price drops.

The current confidence rating of 6 gives strength to the data which covers over 25 years of market trends.

MSTR historical risk model has reached a current value of 0.812, while its share price remains elevated near recent peaks. This data was shared on July 19, 2025, by Into The Cryptoverse (ITC), which now offers the MicroStrategy (MSTR) risk tool via its Premium Pro platform. The model plots long-term MSTR price behavior against historical volatility and risk signals.

Source: X

The interactive chart displays MSTR price in blue and MSTR risk in red across a logarithmic price and metric scale. With data extending from 1998 to 2025, the model shows that each major price high aligns with higher risk readings, suggesting reduced reward potential. The current confidence level of the risk value is marked at 6.

With MSTR trading at levels last seen during the 2021–2022 peak period, the updated risk chart raises a critical question: Are investors overlooking historical risk metrics as price surges resume?

MSTR Risk and Price Track 25 Years of Market Cycles

The chart displays over two decades of MSTR market behavior, highlighting how price movements and risk levels have correlated over time. The blue line represents MSTR's share price, while the red line captures the company’s modeled historical risk level.

From 2000 to 2025, several sharp risk spikes occurred just before large price pullbacks. Notable peaks appear in 2000, 2008, 2013, 2021, and now again in 2025. The risk metric tends to rise as price accelerates quickly and dips once momentum fades or price consolidates.

Between 2002 and 2016, MSTR’s price remained largely stable while risk remained low and compressed. However, after the company shifted to Bitcoin accumulation in late 2020, both price and risk soared in tandem. The new model update suggests a similarly elevated environment today.

The latest risk value of 0.812 is close to the previous high recorded in early 2021 when MSTR peaked above $1,000. Though current prices are slightly lower, the risk profile signals caution for those assessing long-term entry points.

Premium Model Offers Confidence Metric and Trend Insights

The newly available model also includes a confidence score, marked at 6, which quantifies data consistency across the timeline. While not predictive, it serves to contextualize the trust in risk trends shown over time.

Users can view historical zones where price reversed or consolidated after hitting high risk zones. This visual framework offers a potential edge in evaluating overextension versus value.

Into The Cryptoverse has integrated the chart into its Premium Pro plan for deeper market study. The tweet promoting the model received over 4,200 views shortly after being posted. A direct call to action encourages users to access the full data via the premium subscription link.

The model’s log scale offers clarity in multi-decade tracking, helping users see small and large moves with consistent scale. Such visualization is key when analyzing long-term stocks like MSTR.

Can MSTR Maintain Its Price as Risk Nears 1.0 Once Again?

With risk nearing levels seen during past tops, a pivotal question emerges: Will MicroStrategy’s share price defy its historical patterns?

The price remains elevated after a long recovery from mid-2022 lows. However, the rising risk curve now suggests a potentially limited upside based on past outcomes.

As confidence remains at 6, traders and investors are urged to watch both price movement and historical context before making decisions.