MinusTwoDegrees

Where is the peak of this BTC long positions trend?
At present, the highest individual can see is around 105,000, and it is expected to arrive in 3 weeks at the earliest. Some people say 110,000, 135,000, and there are different opinions. However, we can't see that high on the market for the time being, and if the top changes after 2-3 weeks, we will update this view. There is no need to be affected by the outside world for the time being. Before the arrival, the short-term pullback or pricking can basically be judged to be within the 12-hour level, because if it falls below the support of the

low long and high short points and take profit points for sol and eth.

96185-95750 is the recent support area for BTC (go long point), strong support around 95000 (key go long point).
There are two days left until the May Day holiday ends, and it is expected that the main force may make a surprise attack at the latest by late Monday night. Sunday night to Monday morning is still a time to go long on dips, and you can withdraw during the US market time.

As of today (May 3), the Federal Reserve (FED) interest rate cut expectations for May to July:
May 8: Probability of interest rate remaining unchanged is 100%;
June 19: Probability of unchanged interest rates is 63.1%, probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 36.9%;
July 31: Probability of no change in interest rates is 13.2%, probability of a 25 basis point cut is 57.6%, and probability of a 50 basis point cut is 29.2%.
ps: The expectation of a rate cut on June 19 has cooled this week, down 16.7% from last week.

The pullbacks during this period are all at the 2-12 hour level. Up until now, there has been no bearish divergence on the daily chart. It is obvious that it has not yet peaked. 96600-97700 is a strong oscillation zone, similar to the position of 92500-93800, and will be tested repeatedly. If it can hold above 97300 (closing above 97300 and maintaining for 48 hours), the gateway to 100k will be wide open.

eth, sol low long and high short points.

btc: Last night, btc reached a high of around 97400, entering the oscillation range of 96600-97700 mentioned yesterday, and then touched 97777/97850.
Long position: 96185-95815 for initial entry, 95455 for normal entry, with a defense at 95000. (If tonight's non-farm data is bearish, this level is valid; if it's bullish and breaks the new high, then the entry point for the initial position will be updated to 96666).
Short position: 97700/97850, 98485 (can place limit orders in advance), take profit at 96666. ps: Mainly low long positions, for short positions, enter with a light position for he

The market data has been sideways for 8 days, usually experiencing a change in market trend on the 10th-11th day. The day after tomorrow (Friday) evening there is the non-farm payroll report, which is an important piece of information and may lead to a change in market trend. If there is Favourable Information, it will directly pump towards the 9.8-10w direction. If it is bearish, it will first test the support around 92750, and if it rebounds back above 94600, it will still be bullish. Only if it fails to recover and falls below 92000 will it turn bearish.
Therefore, after the second breakthr

Short position at 95400 for BTC, and the long position around 93666 has been filled.

Since last Friday, it has been in a high-level sideways consolidation. Although it has not yet broken through 95750, a daily chart top divergence has not formed. The overall trend is still in a rising structure, and the short-term setup cannot be high on shorts and low on longs.
btc:
Short position: 95400-95600, take profit 94155-93666, stop loss 96000.
Long position: 93355-92666, take profit 94850-95250, stop loss 92400.
eth:
High altitude: 1826-1855, take profit 1777-1750, defense 1891.
Long position: 1752-1742/1738, take profit 1800-1826, stop loss 1720.
sol:
Long position: 144.85-141.85, t

BTC upgraded to a 12-hour adjustment cycle, pullback targets: 91625-90725. Best entry point for a low long position. There will be a short pause and rebound at 92755/92666, which belongs to a short long position, watch the market for take profit.
eth synchronization callback, target 1738-1714. Best entry point for low long position.
sol synchronous callback, 145.5-143.5. Low long entry point.

btc upgraded to a 12-hour adjustment cycle, pullback target: 91625-90725 (focus on going long in the short-term).

Weekend adjustment for 6-8 hours level, follow the pullback to the following points:
sol: 145.5-143.85 buy on dip.
btc: Buy the dip at 93125-92775.
eth: 1777-1742 buy on dips.

Recent high and low point references for the three major coins:
btc high short points: 95750 (already reached last night, no more entries), 96850, 98750, 102550
eth high points: near 1880, 1966, 2112.
sol high points: 159.25, 161.5 (can be combined with 159.25, take profit on pullback to 157-154), around 170.5.
ps: Due to the transition to a bullish structure, short positions at small points will not be issued. Each point mentioned above should only be executed once for the best effect, with nearby defense.

From Saturday to Sunday, BTC, ETH, and SOL have low long positions, take profit points, and the first high short point for next week.

btc is very strong tonight, initially stabilizing at 94600. Take profit points at 95750 and 96850. Hold part of the position, take profit in batches, and take profit of 30-50% at each resistance point, replenishing margin at the recent support. Avoid missing out and leaving gaps. You can enter again at a pullback to 95000-94666.