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Is Altseason still a myth? Decoding the cycle of 2021 and 2024
Over the years, one thing I often see in traders, especially those new to the cryptocurrency world (newbie), is a sense of disappointment when the market declines. When the value decreases, they lose hope, doubt themselves, and question everything they have learned. Recently, someone commented on my post, "Altseason is a lie". But is that really true? Or are there deeper underlying factors at play in the market? Let's analyze this issue through the lens of over 5 years of my trading and market observation experience, as well as from the questions I have received from the community and students. I'm not a random technical analyst making predictions. Experience is the greatest teacher. Some people laughed at my previous updates, but those who really paid attention realized that the results happened as predicted. I understand that out of 10,000 people reading this article, only 1% are truly serious and eager to learn. If you are in that 1%, please press follow to not miss out on valuable analysis of altcoins as well as future predictions. If this article helps you gain a new and useful perspective in any way, please take a moment to like, share, or leave a comment. Your support is the motivation for me to continue sharing deeper insights. 🙌 Altseason 2021 Compared to 2024 In the world of cryptocurrency, you often hear the phrase 'history repeats itself' and it's not just a random coincidence. It's the natural flow of market cycles. If you think back to 2021, we saw something really interesting about 34 weeks after the Bitcoin halving, BTC dominance began to decrease and altcoins began to soar. This was the start of altcoin season, when altcoins began to outperform Bitcoin. Please provide the text to be translated. Now, let's fast forward to 2024. The same thing happens 34 weeks after Bitcoin halving, the dominance of BTC starts to decline. What's happening right now? The exact same pattern. The yellow line is the halving day, the green line is 34 weeks after halving. Please provide the text to be translated. But now the interesting part is that if you zoom in on the BTC dominance chart for 1D, you will see that BTC dominance is starting to increase again after 34 weeks. In fact, it could increase by an additional 5-7% before we see the real altcoin season begin, similar to what happened in 2021.
This tells me that we could be on the brink of something exciting, a season of altcoins could be happening. But if so, Why are we seeing altcoins plummeting like now? The real answer: The dominance of BTC is not the whole story!
When we see altcoins fall, it's easy to conclude that the dominance of BTC is the main factor. And it's true that the dominance of BTC does play a role, but there's more to it than that. The real reason lies in market manipulation, especially by whales and market makers. These entities control a significant portion of the market and they employ tactics that can confuse everyday traders. Let me explain it simply.
So now you can ask who are the Whales and Market Makers? Whales: These are individuals or groups holding a large amount of a specific cryptocurrency. They have enough capital to significantly impact the market when they buy or sell. Market makers: These are entities or organizations that provide liquidity to the market. They profit by manipulating price fluctuations and controlling market flow.
Now, when we see altcoins bleeding, it's usually because whales and market makers are trying to liquidate weak hands—traders using excessive leverage or lacking experience. They do this by creating artificial sell-offs to force traders to panic and sell their positions at a loss. How do whales manipulate the market? Let's explore each step so you can truly understand this process.