BTC bullish traders be cautious! Bernstein warns again: if 'this thing' happens, the worst may be pushed back to 50,000

The US election is today, what will be the trend of BTC?

The 2024 US presidential election will be held on November 5th, US time, and is expected to be counted gradually on the morning of November 6th, Taiwan time. This election has attracted global attention, and cryptocurrency investors are also quite concerned about how it will affect the trend of BTC.

According to Decrypt, a well-known investment institution Bernstein's latest report points out that the price of BTC will show significant differences after the US election.

The Bernstein analysis team stated in the report that if Trump is elected, BTC may reach a historical high of $80,000 to $90,000 in the coming weeks; but if Kamala Harris is elected, the BTC price may fall to $50,000.

The US election has a short-term Fluctuation impact, but in the long term, it is still expected to rise

The Bernstein analysis team further stated that regardless of who is elected, the price fluctuation of BTC will be a short-term phenomenon:

"In our view, in the Cryptocurrency space, BTC is the asset that is most resistant to the impact of election results. The BTC genie has been released from the bottle, and this is difficult to reverse."

Analysts predict that the outcome of the US election will not affect long-term performance, and BTC is still expected to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. Bernstein also predicted that BTC would rise to $200,000 by a "conservative estimate" by 2026.

Why is Bernstein optimistic about the future of Bitcoin? Mainly because the US BTC ETF has been very successful.

The US BTCSpot ETF was approved for listing in January this year, opening up investment opportunities for institutional investors. Since its launch, it has attracted over 20 billion USD in capital inflows.

Image source: Decrypt Bernstein predicts that regardless of the outcome of the US election, BTC will reach $200,000 by 2025.

The previous prediction of Ho King-fai's election victory will fall to 30,000

This is not the first time that Bernstein has predicted the BTC trend after the US election. In September this year, they made an even more amazing prediction that if Kamala Harris was elected, BTC could test the low range of $30,000 to $40,000.

At that time, Bernstein analysts believed that the market has not fully priced in the election results that are favorable to encryption and the positive regulatory environment.

From this election, there are clear differences in the attitude towards cryptocurrency between the Trump and Harris camps. The Trump campaign team is more enthusiastic about accepting cryptocurrency, stating that they want to make the United States the 'Capital of BTC and Cryptocurrency'; while the Harris team's policy outline mentions support for American innovation and worker plans, but does not mention BTC or other cryptocurrencies, instead focusing on the development of artificial intelligence (AI) industry.

However, Jeremy Allaire, CEO of Circle, the issuer of Stable Coin USDC, said that the He Jinli team has shown "coordinated efforts" in understanding digital assets.

As of today (Day 5) at the time of writing, according to Block prediction market Polymarket data, the probability of Trump's election is 58.9%, and Harris is 41.1%. However, other mainstream polls (538, RealClearPolitics) all show that Harris's support rate is slightly higher than Trump's by less than 1%, indicating that the election seems quite close.

[Disclaimer] The market is risky, and investments should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and the analyst's views are for reference only. Users should consider whether any opinions, perspectives, or conclusions in this article are applicable to their specific circumstances. Investing based on this is at your own risk.