If the probability of interest rate cuts goes up: a 25 basis point rate cut is useless, it can only boost market enthusiasm for a few days, the overall trend will still go down, Long Wick Candle up and down.

A rate cut of 50 basis points will bring about a change, at least within a month, shifting to long positions, laying out Spot in the market, and then waiting for the recorded response to push up, setting up stop loss and adapting to changes.

If interest rates do not fall, the market will be finished, and the entire financial system will experience a pullback and so on. The cryptocurrency market will not be spared. There is no need to chase shorts. Let the market recover.

Current market sentiment: 98% probability of a rate cut of 50 basis points, 30% probability of a rate cut of 25 basis points, and close to 0% probability of no rate cut. This is the market's answer. In my opinion, the Federal Reserve does not need to cut interest rates. If they do, I think it's time for the Federal Reserve to change personnel. The GDP growth rate for the third quarter has been revised upward from 2.6 to 3.0, indicating that the economy is not bad, but rather doing well. Even if a rate cut happens, I believe it will be a hawkish rate cut.

Overall market situation: The US dollar index is low, bulk commodities are high, the US dollar index is high and bulk commodities are low. Currently, the US dollar index continues to decline, while US stocks and gold continue to rise, which is in line with market conditions. However, the 'b circle' has shrunk from 70,000 to around 58,000. If the US dollar index pulls back and bulk commodities and US stocks begin to pull back, where will the 'b circle' go? Will it pump against the wind? I think the probability is not high, so I will directly abandon this idea. Then, according to our expectations, US stocks and gold will definitely pull back. We need to look for the reasons. Can this prove that the 'b circle' has experienced compression in the box, and there is a new box space? We can consider 65 as the high point of last month and 48 as the low point, and the overall range has changed. This is still the most optimistic way to look at the market. Recently, shorts and longs are basically balanced, as seen from the Get Liquidated data.

Summary: Personal opinion, this round of compression space in the B-circle, the interval box has changed, the decline of the overall trend, so the overall trend remains unchanged, continue to be bearish, the concept of trend and trend, just like trading and analysis are the same two concepts.