After Bitcoin hit $70,000 for the second time to no avail, it chose to adjust downwards again, will $70,000 become a "double top" in this market?

The direct reason for this adjustment is that the buying volume of ETF institutions on Wall Street is somewhat "weak", and there has even been an outflow again, compared with the previous daily net inflow of hundreds of millions of dollars, the heat has ebbed a little.

During this period, the net long positions held by institutions and the net short positions held by hedge funds both rose in a straight line, indicating that the game of long and short funds has intensified and may be brewing big volatility. We know that since BlackRock applied for an ETF in mid-2023, the market has been bullish, especially BTC.

As a result, the size of the derivatives market began to expand at an accelerated pace, and after the approval of the ETF in January 2024, a large number of short funds were liquidated. After a wave of adjustments, the price of BTC soared as ETF institutions represented by BlackRock and Fidelity Group began to buy, and the derivatives market began to grow sharply again.

At present, the size of the derivatives market has long exceeded the peak of the bull market in 2021, especially recently, and the Bitcoin futures positions of both long and short funds have risen "steeply".
It is believed that short funds may be motivated by several considerations: whales that hold a large amount of spot BTC need to hedge, and the more the market rises, the more they want to hedge, and the other short funds are pure speculation, they think that the current price is too high and there will be a pullback.

Bitcoin has been relatively volatile in the past two weeks, which indicates that the $70,000 market long and short funds are starting to diverge. The most striking thing is that the long-term BTC chips have begun to loosen, that is, long-term funds have begun to sell their chips, and historically, the market has encountered a certain level of resistance, some investors have begun to take profits and exit, and the market is accelerating profit-taking.

When the market reached an all-time high of $73,000, more than $2.6 billion of realized profits were withdrawn, and about 40% of the profit-taking came from long-term holders.

It is believed that the rise in the market has driven the supply of long-term chips, offsetting the demand of some ETF institutions.

From the perspective of the historical cycle, after each round of the market rises sharply, there will be long-term funds to begin to reduce positions and cash out, which is also a normal phenomenon, which shows that the market has reached the middle term, and it is still too early to say that the market is over, and it is still a good time to open a position when it falls sharply.

In my opinion, the most important thing in April is the landing of BTC halving, as the halving gets closer and closer, the eyes of the entire market will focus on BTC again, because the name BTC has been repeatedly mentioned, and it just so happens that a bunch of projects related to the BTC ecosystem have a lot of landing matters in April.

The key time nodes of several very important BTC layer 2 ecosystems (including Merlin) are also in April. You can pay attention to their token MP, and after the launch, they have been shuffling, maybe there is a chance. THE REST ALSO HAVE VOYA AND HUHU