On-chain data for the 25th week: trading activity has increased volatility, and positive signals have increased slightly

This week in review

From June 19th to June 26th this week, the highest price of rock sugar orange was around $31431, and the lowest price was close to $26256, with a volatility of about 18%.

Observing the chip distribution chart, a large number of chips are traded around 30,000, and there will be certain support or pressure.

analyze:

26000-31000 about 3.36 million pieces;

20000~25000 about 1.21 million pieces;

The probability of not falling below 24000~26000 in the short term is 65%;

Among them, the probability of not breaking through 32000-34000 in the short term is 60%.

Important news aspects

Economic news

1. Token issuers in Japan are exempt from the 30% crypto tax:

Token issuers in Japan are exempt from the 30% crypto tax on paper earnings, which could have implications for the Japanese crypto market.

2. The economic crisis in China may affect Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies:

Analysts are looking at how the economic crisis in China might affect bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which could have implications for the global crypto market.

3. Increased cryptocurrency adoption in Cyprus:

Bybit received license approval in Cyprus, which will help increase cryptocurrency adoption in the country.

4. Token mapping in Australia will be 'technology neutral':

An Australian Treasury official said the country's token swap would be 'technology-neutral', which could have implications for Australia's crypto policy.

5. Russia has internal political disputes.

Encrypted ecological news

1. zkSync releases new 'Hyperchains' network: zkSync plans to release a new 'Hyperchains' network by the end of this year, which may have an impact on the performance and security of cryptocurrency networks.

2. HSBC launches cryptocurrency services in Hong Kong: HSBC has launched cryptocurrency services in Hong Kong, which marks the further acceptance of cryptocurrencies by traditional financial institutions.

3. Binance sees the UAE as a 'focus' for future operations: Binance plans to make the UAE a 'focus' for its future operations, which could have a significant impact on the UAE's crypto market.

4. Binance decided not to delist privacy coins in Europe: Binance withdrew its decision to delist privacy coins in Europe, which may have an impact on the European encryption market.

5. 363 entities including Nasdaq, Ripple Labs, Galaxy Digital, BlackRock, and Tribe Capital are interested in the FTX 2.0 restart.

6. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: As an asset class, cryptocurrencies seem to have staying power.

7. Charles Schwab, Citadel Securities, Fidelity Investments, Sequoia Capital, Paradigm and other companies announced that they will jointly launch EDX Markets and have completed financing

8. BlackRock voluntarily applies for BTC spot ETF

9. Rumor: Fidelity May Be Considering Buying Grayscale

Long-term insight: Used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state

**Mid-term exploration: **Used to analyze what stage we are in, how long this stage will last, and what situation we will face

**Short-term observation: **Used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of some directions and certain events under certain conditions

Long Term Insights

Potential Profit Stamping Percentage

Macro spot selling pressure

High Weight Selling Pressure

The percentage of potential profit in the market is rising and is similar to the percentage of potential profit in the phenomenon that the price broke through 30,000 or so for the first time this year.

In short, the market is being tested against underlying margin pressure.

So take a closer look at how much the specific selling pressure has increased.

The overall selling pressure of the spot is moderate, similar to the previous breakthrough of 30,000 for the first time this year.

This time the potential profit percentage and the real spot selling pressure are relatively synchronized.

The high-weight selling pressure has risen to a certain extent compared with before.

All in all, the market is facing a test at this stage;

The resulting sell pressure headwinds in the medium to long term are similar to the total potential profit and the breakout of around $30,000 for the first time this year.

It can also be seen as a less bad piece of news, as its selling pressure did not increase stronger as the price continued to hover and rise.

Mid-term probing

Ratio of realized profit to loss for the year

Online Sentiment Positivity——A High-Precision Test

Exchange Deposit Ratio

new force

The model observes long-term profit and loss structures. It can be seen from the figure that:

1. There is a certain degree of loss ceiling in the market, that is, the loss threshold. It may be inferred from the perspective of magnitude that the loss-making chips available for sale in the market are limited;

2. When the market is breaking free from the state of loss-making selling, or in the state of losing chips, the market may gradually converge, and then the situation at the bottom can be observed;

3. At present, the market has come out of the state of selling at a loss. From the above statistics, the chips available for sale during the year are constantly shrinking. Combined with the chip chart mentioned in the "Review of this week", it can be accurately observed that the market may be available for Because the loss-making chips sold are constantly decreasing, they are also in a "profitable state" at the moment. At this time, the market's ability to accept profitable chips may be considered.

4. The model can observe the fuzzy bottom, that is, when the falling slope of the realized profit-loss ratio line in the purple year becomes slow, a certain degree of left-hand strategy can be developed. Of course, because WTR overlooks the market from a macro perspective on the chain and is in a relatively rational perspective, more details have not been developed, and the results reflected by the above data are for reference only.

Perspective shrinks to mid

The positivity of online sentiment indicates that the sentiment of the participants at this stage has declined somewhat, and it may still need to be repaired for a period of time in the future.

Perhaps the current concentrated problem lies in the unstable situation of the disk, and the participants are affected by the short-term market sentiment.

However, it has not shown the strength to reverse the trend, and the follow-up still needs to focus on observation.

Judging from the current situation, the deposit ratio within the exchange is relatively low, within 49%. It may be that the deposit situation that constitutes selling pressure has not yet appeared, and the current problem may still be a slight lack of motivation.

After a wave of strong performance, the new force is currently a little cold, and the market may return to a slightly weakened situation.

At the threshold where the stock balance has not been broken, it may appear in the form of partial shocks at the moment.

Short term observation

Derivatives Risk Factor

Option intention turnover ratio

Derivatives Volume

Options Implied Volatility

Profit and Loss Transfer Amount

New address and active address

Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange

Auntie exchange net position

High Weight Selling Pressure

The State of Global Purchasing Power

Stablecoin Exchange Net Position

Off-chain exchange data

**Derivatives Rating: The risk coefficient is in the neutral area, and the risk is moderate. **

The current risk coefficient is in the neutral area, and the risk is moderate.

If the risk factor continues to swing upwards, it may increase the pressure on the bulls.

As the price rises, the trading volume of options has decreased, and the current put protection ratio is still maintained at a medium to high level.

As the price rises, the trading volume of derivatives also rises rapidly.

The current derivatives trading volume has dropped to a low level, indicating that derivatives traders are more inclined to wait and see after the price rises to the current stage.

When the price rises, the implied volatility of the option fluctuates greatly. After the rise, as the price calms down, the volatility returns to a relatively calm state.

It shows that the current option traders are also more inclined to wait and see.

Emotional State Rating: Neutral

The amount of profit transfer, which represents a certain positive sentiment, increases when the price rises, and at the same time, the amount of loss transfer decreases.

The current loss transfer volume has dropped to a relatively low level, and the profit transfer volume is still declining. If the loss transfer volume remains calm, it will be a more positive signal for the market outlook.

With this price increase, new and active addresses did not increase significantly. At present, it is generally at an upper-middle level. Overall, the current market activity and investor participation are good.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: The overall situation is a large outflow, and the selling pressure is reduced.

The net position of the pie exchange showed a large outflow. This shows that the current intra-market selling pressure is not high.

The net position of Etai Exchange is in a state of outflow accumulation.

There is currently no high weight selling pressure

**Purchasing Power Rating: The global purchasing power has picked up, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has rebounded slightly. **

(The status of global purchasing power in the figure below)

At present, the purchasing power of the Americas is still the main force. At the same time, the purchasing power of Europe has rebounded more, and the loss of purchasing power of Asia has slowed down.

The net position of USDC exchange shows a slight inflow.

The net position of USDT exchange shows a moderate inflow state.

** Off-chain transaction data rating: 26,000 with a willingness to buy; 33,000 with a willingness to sell. **

25000, 28000 There is a willingness to buy at a nearby price;

33000, 35000 There is a willingness to sell at nearby prices.

26000, 27000, 28000, 29000 are willing to buy at nearby prices;

32000, 33000, 34000 There is a willingness to sell at nearby prices.

Summary of the week

Message summary:

With the global recession, fringe politics and ideological conflicts are beginning to be magnified and become more sensitive.

The recent problems in Russia will plunge the energy, trade, and supply chains of Central Asia and even Asia into a lot of chaos.

Among them, Russia occupies important energy sources such as natural gas, oil, and coal. On the other hand, there are grains, potatoes, and flax in crops.

Nothing is stable, not even the things we take for granted.

Political instability will lead to the continuous transfer of enterprises and industries to India.

It has a stable population, cheap labor, and there are many regions and many smart people.

Friction costs, production costs determine the flow of capital.

The industry in Southeast Asia will gradually rise and develop. In the future, AR glasses and AI real-time assistance will no longer require translation.

Another item is imagination. Currently, India is equivalent to China in the 1970s and 1980s. All the things that were originally established in developed countries can be reproduced.

Of course, the degree of industrial chain integration still needs to be established, but in terms of narrative imagination, it is the most attractive.

For ordinary people, opportunities from the simplest, such as the SENSEX index in Mumbai, India in terms of financial investment, have many opportunities in the long run.

If you are smart enough, you can also have the opportunity to tap Indian technology unicorns that will grow dozens of times in the future.

The future era belongs to the era of those who are better at insight and imagination.

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. The proportion of potential profits in the market is increasing, and it is similar to the proportion of potential profits in the phenomenon that the price broke through 30,000 for the first time this year, but not as high as 31,000;

2. The overall selling pressure of the spot market is moderate, which is also similar to when it broke through 30,000 for the first time this year;

3. From a medium to long-term perspective, the market is facing a test; but the backlog of profits and selling pressure has not increased higher than before, which is a good thing.

Market setting: strategy suggestion: when the selling pressure is digested, a fixed investment strategy can be carried out.

Mid-term exploration on the chain:

1. In the long-term state, loss-making sales are gradually weakening, and the market is facing the test of profitability;

2. The fluidity is slightly weakened, and it will take some time to repair;

3. There is no selling pressure on the deposit ratio, and there may not be too much pressure on the market;

4. The new force has slowed down slightly, and may be currently in a wait-and-see state.

The market sets the tone: wait and see, momentum weakens

The market momentum has weakened slightly. Perhaps under the current conditions of waiting and watching for new players, the wait-and-see atmosphere will be biased. The problem to be dealt with now is the next state switch after the lack of upward momentum.

On-chain short-term observation:

1. The risk coefficient is in the neutral area, and the risk is moderate.

2. The newly added active addresses are at the upper-middle level, and the market activity is good.

3. Market sentiment rating: Neutral.

4. The overall net position of the exchange showed a large amount of outflow, and the selling pressure decreased.

5. The global purchasing power has rebounded, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has rebounded slightly.

6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 26,000; there is a willingness to sell at the price of 33,000.

7. The probability of not falling below 24000~26000 in the short term is 65%;

8. The probability that the price will not rise above 32000-34000 in the short term is 60%.

The market has set the tone: trading activity has increased, volatility has increased, the overall positive signal has increased slightly, and the momentum for continued upward momentum has decreased in the short term.

Strategic advice: choose the opportunity to hedge.