After Powell's speech, gold and silver rose. Can the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" make a strong push again?

Fed Chairman Powell released dovish signals in Jackson Hole, reinforcing expectations of a rate cut in September, leading to a rebound in gold. Although the rise is limited by unclear policies, the risks of stagflation and a weakening labor market have jointly boosted gold's safe-haven appeal. Technically, gold is showing a breakout trend, with silver also strengthening, while the dollar index is showing signs of weakness. This article analyzes the trends of gold, silver, and the dollar from both macro and technical perspectives, and compares the differences in safe-haven properties, capital flows, and volatility characteristics between gold and Bitcoin to provide reference for investors.

[Powell's speech boosts gold prices, September rate cut expectations become the focus]

Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole prompted a positive reaction in gold (XAUUSD) prices. Powell hinted at a possible interest rate cut in September, and a low interest rate environment typically reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby increasing demand. However, due to his lack of a clear commitment, the market remains cautious, limiting the short-term rise in gold. Similar to Bitcoin, gold is highly sensitive to monetary policy and interest rate changes, but it demonstrates more traditional and stable safe-haven properties.

[The risk of stagflation intensifies, highlighting the safe-haven attributes of gold]

Concerns about economic stagflation have further enhanced the attractiveness of gold. The environment of slowing growth combined with persistent inflation has driven demand for safe-haven assets. In a stagflation context, gold often performs strongly, capable of retaining value when the purchasing power of currency declines. Recent surges in wholesale prices have intensified these concerns. Unlike emerging safe-haven assets like Bitcoin, gold has demonstrated a more sustainable value storage capability during historical periods of high inflation.

Labor market data becomes a key barometer.

Labor market signals also affect the trend of gold. Data shows that the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. surged to 235,000 in the second week of August, but the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2%. If the unemployment rate rises in August, it will confirm the weakness of the labor market, strengthening the Fed's rationale for interest rate cuts, which is beneficial for gold to rise further. This data also has significant implications for risk assets such as Bitcoin, potentially triggering cross-market fluctuation transmission.

[Gold Technical Analysis: Bullish Pattern Initially Formed]

The daily chart of spot gold shows that the gold price has strongly rebounded near the 100-day moving average, forming a bullish price action. The price is supported by buying at the 50-day and 100-day moving average support levels, indicating the continuation of the upward trend. Immediate resistance is in the range of $3450 to $3500, and a breakout above $3500 may trigger further significant rises.

On the 4-hour chart, the gold price has been consolidating between $3250 and $3450 for four months. A breakout above $3450 will drive the price to test the key resistance at $3500. This long-term consolidation has built a positive price structure, and after breaking the historical high, it is expected to start a new round of increases.

[Silver Technical Analysis: Breakthrough Imminent, Momentum Strengthening]

The daily chart of spot silver (XAGUSD) shows that the price has formed an "Adam and Eve" bottom pattern below $35, and after breaking through $35, it continues to build bullish momentum above the 50-day moving average. A breakout above the $40 level could drive the price up towards $42. The RSI indicator is trending positively above the midline, further supporting the bullish outlook.

On the 4-hour chart, silver prices are showing a positive trend above $37. A breakout above $35 has cleared significant resistance, and maintaining above $37 indicates that silver is likely to continue moving upward. After Powell's speech, the silver price has broken above $38.60, and if it successfully settles above $40, it will continue the strong momentum.

[Technical Analysis of the Dollar Index: Downward Trend Continues]

The daily chart of the US Dollar Index shows that the index has fallen below the 50-day moving average and continues its downward trend. The consolidation over the past three months has formed a bearish pattern, indicating that the dollar may continue to decline. A drop below the 96 level will confirm this direction and could push the dollar down towards the 90 mark.

On the 4-hour chart, the US Dollar Index has broken below the support of the ascending broadening wedge, showing negative price action. Recent support is around 97, and if it fails, the next key support is at 96.40. This breakout signal indicates that the US Dollar Index is accumulating downside momentum.

[The Linkage and Differences Between Gold and Bitcoin]

Although both gold and Bitcoin benefit from expectations of Fed interest rate cuts and risk-averse sentiment, their market performances show significant differences. Gold's rise is relatively steady, with volatility much lower than that of Bitcoin, making it more suitable for conservative asset allocation. From the recent flow of funds, there is a noticeable outflow of funds from Bitcoin spot ETFs, while gold ETFs continue to see inflows, indicating that traditional safe-haven assets are still favored by institutions during periods of market uncertainty. Investors can combine the characteristics of both to build a diversified anti-inflation investment portfolio.

[Investment Conclusion and Strategy Suggestions]

The precious metals market is highly correlated with the movement of the US dollar, and it is recommended that investors closely monitor this week's PCE inflation and non-farm employment data. Technically, a breakout of the resistance zone at 3450-3500 for gold can be seen as a further signal to go long, while silver needs to stabilize above the 40 dollar mark to maintain its upward momentum. Compared to Bitcoin, gold may have better defensive attributes amid medium to short-term macro uncertainties. It is advisable to balance the allocation of traditional safe-haven assets and crypto assets to cope with potential market fluctuations.