Dow rises as investors await Powell speech

U.S. stocks opened higher as a cautious market awaited Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole.

Summary

• Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly ahead of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s speech.
• Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole symposium at 10:00 am on Friday.
• UBS has lifted its forecast for the S&P 500, with end of 2025 mark at 6,600 from 6,200

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 275 points, or 0.28%, while the S&P 500 hovered 0.2% higher. Premarket trading had seen several stocks tick upward. The Nasdaq Composite also gained at open, up 0.15% as bulls looked to take advantage of any positives from Federal Reserve cbief Jerome Powell’s speech scheduled for 10.00 am ET.

While stocks have been volatile this week amid corporate earnings, weak labor market data, and geopolitical jitters, sentiment showed slight improvement as Powell’s speech loomed. The Federal Reserve‘s symposium is drawing heightened attention this year as it comes amid a notable push by President Donald Trump for the central bank to cut interest rates.

All eyes on Fed’s chair

Powell has come under significant pressure from Trump, and the latest Fed meeting featured two dissenting voices as the central bank again left interest rates unchanged. Policy predictions rose that the Fed could cut rates in September.

Stocks subsequently jumped on the improved sentiment, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record highs. Tech stocks rallying as corporate giants beat earnings estimates also contributed, as did the reaction to July’s consumer price index.

However, the CPI report was followed by a hotter-than expected producer price index, and stocks swung lower. Fed’s minutes for the July meeting thus thrust the Fed symposium into sharp focus- particularly Powell’s speech.

“The implied market probability of a Federal Reserve September rate cut is now below 80%, down from slightly above 90% a week ago. It will be interesting to see how this probability reacts to Chair Powell’s 10 am remarks,” Mohamed El-Erian, a top economist and Allianz chief economic advisor, noted via X.

UBS raises S&P 500 target to 6,600

Wall Street’s anticipation around Powell’s remarks is also observable across the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin (BTC) expected to react to the 10:00 am speech similarly to other risk assets. Analysts predict BTC will reach new highs above $150k in 2025, with forecasts of the digital asset going as high as $1 million by 2030.

Meanwhile, UBS Global Wealth Management has raised its end-2025 target for the S&P 500 index from 6,200 to 6,600 and set its mid-2026 target at 6,800. The upbeat forecast is based on expectations for corporate earnings, trade deals, and interest rate cuts.

UBS’s projection aligns with those of other leading brokerages, including Citigroup and HSBC.