Powell's final Jackson Hole speech preview: Is a September rate cut signal coming? Bitcoin may迎新一轮 Supercycle.

Fed Chairman Powell will deliver a significant speech at the Jackson Hole global central banking conference, which could be the last policy tone-setting of his tenure. The crypto market and U.S. stock investors are closely following signals of a rate cut in September and potential changes in the monetary policy framework. Historical data shows that Powell's past speeches have triggered Bitcoin supercycles, and this speech could become the most critical macro catalyst for 2025.

[The global market is on high alert]

The financial markets are on high alert as Fed Chairman Powell is about to deliver a key speech at the Central Bank's annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This event, known in the industry as the "monetary policy Oscars", has traditionally been an important platform for signaling strategic shifts from the Fed. Analyst Bull Theory pointed out: "A single statement from Powell is enough to shake global stock, bond, and Bitcoin prices."

[Historical Influence and Policy Legacy]

Reviewing recent data, Powell's dovish statements in 2019 sparked a frenzy in risk assets, while the hawkish turn in 2022 directly triggered a double kill in stocks and coins. The uniqueness of this speech lies in the fact that it may be his last appearance at Jackson Hole during his chairmanship. Yale economist Stephen Roach stated: "Powell may take this opportunity to promote structural reforms of the Central Bank's dual mandate (inflation and employment), which is historically more significant than short-term interest rate adjustments."

[The divisions within the Fed are evident]

Recent statements from Fed officials show significant divisions within the decision-making body: Cleveland Fed President Mester emphasized that "if the meeting were held today, I would not support a rate cut," while Kansas City Fed President Schmidt also took a cautious stance. On the other hand, Governors Waller and Bowman released more dovish signals. Currently, the interest rate futures market prices in a 73.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, but policy uncertainty remains high.

[Policy Framework Reform Outlook]

The market expects Powell to formally abandon the "average inflation targeting" adopted in 2020. This policy allows inflation to temporarily exceed the 2% target to compensate for periods below the target, but the persistent high inflation in the post-pandemic era has exposed its limitations. BeInCrypto analysis points out that if the 2% inflation targeting is abandoned, it will fundamentally change the valuation system of traditional assets and cryptocurrencies.

[Crypto Market Correlation Analysis]

Historical data confirms the high correlation between the Jackson Hole speech and the crypto market: Powell's dovish speech in 2021 triggered the "Bitcoin Supercycle," causing prices to rise by 47% within three months. Analyst Remington points out: "Current conditions are better than in 2021—three rate cuts combined with capital poised to surge, Bitcoin is expected to break previous highs and establish a new price range."

[Risk Factors and Defense Strategies]

Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin warned of risks: "The main drivers of the market downturn are macro uncertainties rather than crypto-specific factors." He listed fourfold risks: contradictory inflation data, weak employment reports, geopolitical tensions, and political pressure on the Fed during the U.S. election year. As of the time of writing, the Bitcoin price has fallen below the key trend line to $113,144, indicating that some investors are taking profits.

[Conclusion]

Powell's farewell speech is not only about the September interest rate decision but will also define his policy legacy and the monetary policy framework for the next decade. For the crypto market, this speech could become the trigger for a new round of Supercycle or the fuse for risk aversion. Investors are advised to closely follow changes in the wording of the policy framework, especially any hints regarding reforms to the inflation targeting system, as this may have more long-term impact than the interest rate cuts themselves.