Fed "news" leaked? Ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting, global markets have already adjusted their positions!

On Monday, the global market exuded a sense of "something big is coming" on the eve of an event: the dollar quietly rose, gold and U.S. Treasuries surged before retreating, and U.S. stocks remained stuck near historical highs. On the surface, the fluctuations seem small, but hidden within the market structure is a subtle hint of "leakage"—clearly presenting a pattern of "dollar up, everything else down," resembling a situation where everyone has "received the news" in advance and adjusted their positions ahead of the Jackson Hole annual meeting.

The most crucial event this week is undoubtedly Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting on Friday. Meanwhile, Wall Street's actions have already revealed their signs of "insider knowledge":

First, the market's probability of a Fed rate cut in September has quietly dropped from a full 100% last week to 80%—this is not random fluctuation, but more like a preemptive reaction to "Powell possibly changing his tune";

Second, recent institutional research reports have almost collectively turned, all expecting Powell to release "hawkish signals":
HSBC bluntly stated that it is difficult for Powell to make any "dovish" remarks this time—given the emerging inflation pressures and the slowdown in employment data, there are signs of "stagflation." If he loosens too much now, the risks will only increase.

Bank of America believes that Powell has every reason to "stay put" and maintain a cautious stance at the annual meeting, after all, he does not want to be "held hostage" by market sentiment and prematurely lock in policy space.
Citi is more direct, as its dollar position indicator has changed from a slight short position to zero holdings, indicating that investors are now reluctant to easily bet on the direction of the dollar, and there is no obvious net long or short bias.

For Powell, this is actually a good opportunity: even if he really sends a hawkish signal, the market won't panic excessively — after all, everyone has started to accept the reality that the "Fed may be more hawkish." The more likely scenario is that the market has already digested the "expectation gap" before his speech, providing some feedback in advance to avoid extreme volatility on the day of the speech. Ultimately, the market is not waiting for a "surprise," but is quietly digesting the risk of "potential disappointment."
Looking at Powell's style, he has predominantly been "cautious" for a long time, so it is unlikely he will make a clear statement at the annual meeting. However, recent labor market data will indeed influence him—he cannot completely ease up, nor can he be too definitive. Therefore, he will likely use some vague yet "profound" expressions, leaving space for market interpretation and allowing everyone to guess the policy direction.

To understand the underlying logic of this wave of global markets, we have provided a more in-depth analysis in "Global Market Strategy: Accurate Predictions (Sequel)" — not just analyzing isolated news, but linking clues into a coherent trend story, offering not vague predictions, but actionable guidelines. For example:

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If you want to understand "Will the Chinese stock market welcome another highlight?" "Can gold rebound?" "Will the RMB fluctuate?" "When will the US stock market's netting action come?", this strategy will help you piece together fragmented information into a complete trend chart—after all, in the market, understanding the logic is more important than guessing rises and falls.