The policy direction of the Fed has always affected the global market nerves, famously known as "a sneeze from the Fed can give the global market a cold." Now, the market's attention is fully focused on the Central Bank annual meeting - the statement from Fed Chairman Powell tonight will directly determine the direction of this "sneeze" and may also set the tone for the recent pullback in the crypto market.

Global funds are "on a hot stove": just waiting for a word from Powell.
The latest report from CITIC Securities reveals the core contradiction in the current market: global funds are like ants on a hot pot, collectively waiting for Powell to release policy signals. The CPI data from July made the market sense the possibility of interest rate cuts, which sparked expectations for a rate cut in September, but then the PPI data poured cold water with its "inflation stickiness."
Wall Street is currently divided into two factions:
• Hawkish expectations: Believing that the Fed will stick to its "anti-inflation" stance, even if the data fluctuates, it will not easily back down;
• Dovish bets: betting that the Central Bank will acknowledge economic pressures and signal an early release of policy easing.
U.S. stocks are experiencing "pre-exam anxiety", while the crypto market is "getting into position".
The recent performance of the US stock market resembles a student waiting for exam results, jumping up and down, with sensitive emotions. Meanwhile, the crypto market has long entered a "standby state": Bitcoin is oscillating around the $110,000 mark, seemingly "playing dead," while ETH is stabilizing in the $4,400 range, clearly waiting for clarity in macroeconomic trends.
It is important to know that last year, Powell's hawkish remarks at the Central Bank annual meeting directly triggered an 8% one-day plunge in the crypto market; conversely, if he changes his tune tonight and mentions "inflation is controllable," the market's buying may instantly overload trading software.
The three types of assets have their "scripts" written in advance, just waiting for the signal to trigger.
Interest rate-sensitive assets have acted in advance, revealing a hidden market consensus:
• Gold ETF holdings quietly hit a new high;
• The options betting volume on US tech stocks has increased significantly;
• The funding rate for perpetual contracts in the crypto market has started to turn positive.
The market logic is clear: as long as Powell hints at interest rate cuts, the "three-piece set" of Bitcoin hitting previous highs, altcoins rebounding, and MEME coins sparking a short-term frenzy will likely occur simultaneously.
Survival rule for seasoned investors: cutting losses is more important than "hearing the wind".
Investors who have experienced the interest rate hike storm of 2022 understand: "The Fed's words are deceptive," as there will always be uncertainty in policy statements. The safest strategy right now is to "wait for the other shoe to drop":
• If Powell continues to "play Tai Chi" and obfuscates policy direction, attention should be focused on the key support level of Bitcoin at $60,000;
• If unexpected dovish signals are released, prioritize positioning in high beta assets such as ETH and SOL, which have higher elasticity.
Finally, remember: "The words of the Central Bank governor are worth a fortune, but your stop-loss order is even more valuable for your life." No matter how the market evolves, risk control is always the top priority.