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#August Market Prediction#
The DVOL index of Bitcoin, which tracks volatility, is at a historical low. Only 2.6% of days have lower values, indicating extreme complacency in the market. Investors are not hedging against potential downturns. If unexpected events trigger volatility, it could lead to significant price changes.
DVOL measures the expected price fluctuations over the next month. The current low level indicates a relaxation among traders. However, this calm may not last, as volatility shocks often occur after periods of confidence. If an unexpected market event occurs, Bitcoin could experience severe price fluctuations that would catch investors off guard.
The overall BTC macro pulse shows a significant change in investor behavior. The indicator for changes in HODLer net positions has slowed down, indicating a decrease in the activity of long-term holders (LTH). Although they began accumulating Bitcoin at the beginning of the month, this trend has paused due to market uncertainty.
Despite the lack of new purchases, the absence of sales indicates the optimism of holders. They are waiting for a clearer direction from the market before making their next move. This suggests that long-term holders are cautious, but any surge in volatility is expected to lead to a price increase, so they maintain their positions.
The price of Bitcoin has risen over the past month, but in the last 24 hours, the momentum has weakened, with BTC dropping to $117,305. The decline below the upward trend line indicates a change in market sentiment.
If investors maintain their positions during the expected period of volatility, Bitcoin may stabilize above $117,000. This will pave the way for a potential move towards $120,000. Turning this level into support would allow the price to continue rising. However, if investors start to sell due to the volatility, the cryptocurrency could see a significant drop. A break below the support level of $115,000 would clear the way for $112,526. This would offset the gains made in August and negate bullish expectations.