Financial Bubbles and Civilizational Collapse: In-Depth Reflections on the Current Economic Cycle

We are currently at the end of a highly financialized cycle. A remarkable phenomenon has emerged in the market: certain cryptocurrencies have skyrocketed in value tenfold in just one month, yet may also plummet by 20% in a single day. This extreme volatility is not just a superficial bubble phenomenon; it reflects deeper issues of excessive liquidity, market distortions, and a civilizational system gradually collapsing under internal contradictions.

Although the S&P 500 Index has repeatedly reached new highs, this "growth" is actually just an illusion created by the expansion of the money supply. When considering inflation, the index has actually made no progress since the beginning of the 21st century. This is not real economic growth, but a direct reflection of currency depreciation.

The current issue is a fundamental structural problem that cannot be solved merely by adjusting interest rates. There are three key factors worth noting:

1. The Gradual Collapse of the Debt System

The modern monetary system is on the verge of its limits. It is built on an ever-expanding base of debt and now faces irreconcilable internal contradictions. Traditional economic stimulus measures and market rescue policies are based on a false understanding: the more debt there is, the more prosperous the economy.

However, this illusion is being shattered by reality. Productivity growth is stagnating, and demographic changes are contrary to this system. The working-age population is decreasing, the dependency ratio is rising, and consumption is increasingly reliant on credit rather than income. This economic machine is aging and has lost its ability to self-repair.

The 2008 financial crisis should have burst this bubble, but it did not. Instead, the COVID-19 pandemic exposed the government's incompetence in protecting citizens at the most basic level, shaking the public's confidence in the system.

2. The Closure of Intelligent Technology

The discussion about Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) still remains at an overly optimistic level. Most people believe that AI will become as ubiquitous as office software, turning into a tool for enhancing productivity.

This idea is too naive. If machines obtain the ability to self-improve, simulate complex systems, and design new types of weapons, they will never become open-source technology. Like nuclear technology and gene editing technology, powerful AI will ultimately become a tool for state control.

The general public can only access strictly restricted AI interfaces, while the real system will be hidden away for serving strategic goals.

3. Time Becomes the New Currency

With the development of artificial intelligence and synthetic biology, we are entering an era where lifespan can be extended. However, this will not be a public health revolution that benefits everyone. True lifespan extension, cognitive enhancement, and embryo optimization technologies will be extremely expensive, heavily regulated, and will trigger political controversies.

Therefore, the rich will not only be wealthier economically but will also create a biological gap between themselves and ordinary people. The ability to alter the human genetic blueprint will create a new privileged class: those who can escape natural death through biotechnology patents.

Three Tracks of Future Society

1. Numb masses: Immersed in the dopamine loop generated by AI, social media, and virtual reality, overstimulated yet undernourished, politically insignificant.
2. Cognitive Elite: A minority group whose biology and intelligence have been enhanced, pursuing control over biology and death.
3. New hermits: a group that actively disconnects from technology in search of human experiences in a machine-dominated world.

In this fragmented future, the first type of people provide resources to the second type, while the third type of people try to resist this system.

Conclusion

In this noisy market, the real challenge is not how to "beat the market", but how to prepare in a system that no longer serves the majority of participants. Those who understand this will not be misled by short-term price fluctuations, but will gain insights from systematic thinking.

Most people may not realize this until it is too late. For many, remaining ignorant seems easier to accept than facing the harsh reality. However, in this time of profound change, staying awake and thinking ahead is more important than ever.