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At 10 PM (Beijing time) on August 22, Fed Chairman Powell will deliver an important speech at the Kansas City Fed's annual meeting held in Jackson Hole. This speech is highly anticipated as the U.S. economy is at a delicate turning point: on one hand, tariff policies have driven up inflation, while on the other hand, signs of cooling in the job market are emerging, making the economic situation complex and volatile.
Financial markets widely expect the Fed to possibly cut interest rates by 25 basis points next month. Therefore, investors will closely watch Powell's speech, trying to capture the direction of future monetary policy from it. It is worth noting that Powell's term will end in May next year, which makes this speech potentially one of the most influential during his tenure.
Powell faces multiple challenges: he needs to seek a balance between controlling inflation and maintaining economic growth, while also responding to political pressure. Recent employment data has performed poorly, coupled with ongoing trade friction, these factors are likely to become the focus of his speech. However, based on Powell's consistent communication style, he is expected to adopt cautious wording, avoiding making overly explicit commitments.
Market participants are particularly concerned about whether Powell will hint at the decision direction for the upcoming September monetary policy meeting. Given the potential leadership changes, the importance of this speech is self-evident. Many financial analysts are prepared to stay up all night to watch the live broadcast of this speech, as any subtle phrasing in the speech could trigger a strong market reaction.
As global economic uncertainty increases, Powell's speech is significant not only for the United States but also for global financial markets. Regardless of the final outcome, this speech will become a key event influencing the direction of future economic policies.