Market Analysis on August 10, 2025

First, let's talk about the market capitalization situation. Under the strong rally of Ethereum, one key indicator we must pay attention to is the market share of BTC. Recent data shows that the BTC.D value has fallen to around 60%, down by 6 points from the peak. Simply based on this indicator, I believe the current market is not yet at a peak. On the one hand, the decline is limited, not reaching 10 points; on the other hand, in absolute terms, based on historical data, a drop below 40% is an extremely dangerous signal for the market. Considering the increasing maturity of the market, we can wait until it falls to 50% before starting to reduce positions in large quantities.
The decline in BTC's market capitalization ratio is mainly attributed to the surge in ETH, but in reality, the overall altcoin sector hasn't risen much. Therefore, the market's FOMO sentiment hasn't picked up. Judging the state of the market through sentiment is also one of the common methods, and from this perspective, it hasn't reached a so-called greedy state. However, Ethereum's rise has made the market increasingly crazy, and over the past couple of days, I've heard the community discussing again whether ETH can surpass Bitcoin. From the perspective of smart contracts and ecological development, it's not without hope, but this round is clearly impossible. The driving force behind this market trend is also Wall Street funds, which can be understood as the overflow of BTC strategic allocation funds. This way, everyone understands that only when the power of price increase comes from an ecological explosion is there a possibility of surpassing. Therefore, when the market presents some irrational statements, we also need to learn to view them rationally and avoid blindly following the trend.
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