2024 US Election: Crypto Assets Become the New Battleground

The 2024 United States presidential election is about to reach a critical moment, and the final outcome remains uncertain. It is worth noting that Crypto Assets have become a new important topic in this election.

The remarks of a certain candidate often influence the fluctuations in Bitcoin prices, and another tech entrepreneur closely linked to a well-known digital currency has also expressed support for that candidate. It seems that the Bitcoin and virtual assets market has formed some kind of connection with this combination. Currently, Bitcoin prices are fluctuating around $70,000, leading people to wonder whether the election results will become a catalyst for Bitcoin's breakthrough.

The market has begun to place early bets on a certain candidate's victory, and this expectation has manifested in various fields. The US stock market, US bond market, precious metals, and Crypto Assets markets all show significant related characteristics. In the past month, Bitcoin's trend has shown a high degree of synchronization with this candidate's chances of winning the election. Moving forward, the electoral situation in the seven key swing states will become a critical factor influencing the market.

From Wall Street to Silicon Valley, traders are deploying their investment strategies based on this expectation, transitioning from traditional finance to digital currency. However, political elections are always full of uncertainties, and any "unexpected" event could lead to severe market fluctuations. Investors need to be prepared for various possible scenarios.

If a certain candidate wins, the traditional financial market may experience the following impacts:

1. Monetary policy: It is expected to maintain a relatively loose monetary environment. This policy orientation will be beneficial for risk assets such as U.S. stocks, especially favoring the industrial and traditional energy sectors; at the same time, U.S. Treasury yields are also expected to show an upward trend.

2. Tax policy aspect: Plans to reduce domestic corporate tax rates while increasing tariffs on foreign goods. This industrial policy orientation will benefit the prices of major commodities such as copper and oil, which are heavily consumed in industries; it will also create favorable conditions for the development of technology companies.

3. International Relations: Committed to ending conflicts in a certain region within a few days after taking office, but stated that investment in the Middle East will continue. These adjustments in foreign policy may affect the trends of defense stocks, but overall will bring a more stable environment to the market.

If the candidate wins, the digital currency market will have the following impacts:

1. Bitcoin is expected to lead the breakthrough: As Bitcoin is deeply tied to the image of the candidate, coupled with previous statements supporting Bitcoin, such as the promise to include it in the national reserves and to replace the current regulatory agency head, these proposals are expected to be gradually realized after the candidate takes office. Considering that the candidate is known for "keeping campaign promises," Bitcoin is expected to lead the way to new highs.

2. A certain cryptocurrency may be on the verge of opportunities: The political and business allies of this candidate have deep connections with this cryptocurrency, and it is expected that he will leverage the momentum of his victory to help this coin regain market attention.

3. A new project may drive the DeFi ecosystem: The new project supported by the candidate's family is likely to become a new market focus with this opportunity. This will not only bring an upward opportunity for the project but is also expected to promote the prosperity of the entire DeFi ecosystem, thereby driving up the price of Ethereum.

Although the current probability of this candidate winning is relatively high, the occurrence of "special" events during the election process cannot be ignored. According to the latest data from a certain prediction market, the candidate's support rate is 56.2%, down from last week's peak of 65%. The election situation remains tense, and if another candidate ultimately wins, market expectations will be shattered, leading to a significant reversal.

If another candidate wins, the traditional financial markets may experience the following impacts:

1. Tax policy aspect: Advocates for increasing taxes on the wealthy and large corporations, and plans to raise the corporate income tax rate from 21% to 35%, while raising funds for the treasury through taxation on financial transactions and other means. These policies may affect the overall profitability of companies, but are beneficial for the sectors that benefit from the treasury.

2. In terms of fiscal expenditure: support for the universal health insurance plan, expansion of social welfare spending, and promotion of the "care economy" development. These policies will drive related sectors such as healthcare and social services. At the same time, a large-scale climate plan has been proposed, which will significantly benefit the new energy industry.

3. Overall Market Trend: After the market expectations are disrupted, the stock market may experience significant fluctuations. The market needs time to find a new direction before the new government policies become clearer and investors readjust their expectations.

If another candidate wins, the digital currency market will have the following effects:

1. Regulatory Situation: The current government's strong regulatory approach may continue. The policies of regulatory agencies are likely to maintain a tough stance, and the overall enforcement efforts are expected to remain strong, which will affect the institutionalization process of Crypto Assets.

2. Market Trend: Since the current market has already priced in the victory of a certain candidate, if the expectations fall short, Bitcoin may face a significant correction. According to a certain analysis agency, it may drop by 10% by the end of the year. The market needs to establish a new valuation logic.

3. Delaying Institutional Entry: The candidate's attitude towards Crypto Assets is somewhat ambiguous. Although they express support for the development of digital assets to maintain America's competitiveness, they lack specific policy details. This uncertainty may affect investor confidence and delay the pace of institutional entry.

The U.S. presidential election is in full swing, and every statement made by the two candidates stirs the nerves of the market. Regardless of the outcome, investors need to stay clear-headed, pay attention to the implementation progress of policies and changes in market expectations, and seize opportunities while effectively managing risks to avoid being overly influenced by short-term market sentiment.