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In July 2025, the U.S. economy is at a critical turning point. The Treasury's monthly budget report shows an unexpected surplus, tariffs and the trade war are significantly heating up, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces rumors of resignation. Data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) reveals strong market expectations for rising U.S. Treasury yields. These events collectively outline a complex economic picture, involving profound games of fiscal policy, trade strategies, and monetary policy. This article will delve into these dynamics, combining the latest data to explore their potential impacts on the U.S. economy and global markets.
1. Ministry of Finance Monthly Report: Behind the Unexpected Surplus
In June 2025, the Ministry of Finance reported that the government achieved a budget surplus of 27 billion dollars, with revenues of 526 billion dollars and expenditures of 500 billion dollars. This result is encouraging, especially compared to the 70 billion dollar deficit in June 2024.