Bitcoin Rebound altcoin big dump US tariffs turmoil triggers global market Fluctuation

Market Insights

1. Macroeconomic Environment

The current market is facing a trend of improving monetary liquidity. Trump's tariff policy has been implemented chaotically, and regardless of the final outcome, it has quickly undermined market confidence in the U.S. economy, which is expected to continue affecting market trends in the coming months. U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar have returned to a downward channel, while U.S. stocks have experienced a historic surge, a phenomenon that typically occurs in the middle of a bear market. The cryptocurrency market has also experienced significant fluctuations alongside U.S. stocks.

2. Market Performance

This week, Bitcoin experienced a significant rebound from an oversold condition, while some small-cap tokens saw a sharp decline due to factors such as delisting. The overall market lacks a clear hot topic.

Among the top 300 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization:

The five projects with the highest increase are XCN (110%), FARTCOIN (100%), GAS (60%), LAYER (40%), and UXLINK (30%).

The five projects with the largest decline are BERA (40%), EOS (20%), MEW (20%), W (20%), and NEAR (20%).

It is worth noting that:

• BERA has experienced a significant decline as a DeFi public chain, falling below its long-term consolidation support level. In the past week, its on-chain stablecoins have decreased by 300 million USD.
• FARTCOIN is a meme token in the Solana ecosystem that has surged several times in the face of an overall market downturn, becoming the leader of this round of rebound.
• BABY is a leading staking project in the Bitcoin ecosystem, and after its listing, its market value returned to the level of 800 million dollars from the last round of institutional investment. However, the feasibility of re-staking is under scrutiny.

3. On-chain Data Analysis

Capital inflows into the Bitcoin market have stagnated. Market liquidity is rapidly contracting, causing the total market capitalization of altcoins to plummet from $1 trillion at the end of 2024 to $600 billion. This decline shows a widespread characteristic, with almost all sectors experiencing significant depreciation.

Institutional funds have once again experienced a small-scale net outflow, and global market sentiment has shifted towards panic. The market value of stablecoins has slightly decreased, reflecting a clear risk-averse sentiment among investors.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-Z Score is currently at 1.6, close to the bottom range. This indicator is based on the total cost of the market and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it indicates a top range; when it is less than 2, it indicates a bottom range. MVRV has fallen below the critical level of 1, meaning that holders are generally in a state of loss.

4. Futures Market Dynamics

The funding rate for this period remains at a low of 0.00%. Generally, a rate between 0.05% and 0.1% indicates a higher long leverage, which may suggest a short-term market top; a rate between -0.1% and 0% indicates a higher short leverage, which may suggest a short-term market bottom.

The open interest in Bitcoin futures continues to decline, indicating that the main capital in the market is withdrawing. The long-short ratio is 1.9, reflecting a market sentiment leaning towards greed. Typically, retail sentiment is viewed as a contrary indicator; a long-short ratio below 0.7 indicates fear, while above 2.0 indicates greed. However, due to the high volatility of the long-short ratio data, its reference value has diminished.

5. Overview of the Spot Market

This week, Bitcoin's price has experienced severe fluctuations, while altcoins lack new narrative drives. The global financial market is under increasing pressure due to heightened uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies. This weak trend has spread to almost all asset classes, and the cryptocurrency market, as an emerging asset, is also struggling to remain unaffected, deeply entrenched in a bear market predicament.