Crypto Market Weekly Report: Frequent Regulatory Developments, Emergence of New Stablecoins

Market Observation

macro environment

The US economy continues to grow beyond expectations, with persistent inflation remaining. The market expects the Federal Reserve to delay the first interest rate cut until September, with the total number of cuts for the year likely not exceeding two. Before inflation continues to fall back to the 2% target, long-term Treasury yields may need to rise further to curb demand. US stocks have been declining continuously, and the crypto market has adjusted accordingly.

Overall Market

This week, Bitcoin's performance has been weak, and mainstream coins have generally declined. The market focus is on the Meme sector, which has less upward resistance and lacks significant venture capital selling pressure.

Projects worth paying attention to include:

1. The exchange platform's coin to BTC exchange rate has broken through the monthly line. The platform's founder is about to face a verdict, and if the result is relatively light, it may trigger a retaliatory surge.

2. RENZO: A trading platform plans to launch, focusing on ETH re-staking business. Similar project ETHFI has reached a market value of 4 billion USD. The special aspect is that the launch time is earlier than the airdrop claiming time.

3. DOG: The overall expectation for the Bitcoin rune ecosystem is relatively low. Rune stones will airdrop DOG runes to holders, with a market cap of $350 million and active short-term trading.

Bitcoin analysis

On-chain data

The fourth Bitcoin halving has been completed, and the supply inflation rate has dropped to 0.85%, lower than gold's 2.3%. Unlike previous years, this year there has been over $12 billion in spot ETF inflows, interest rates are at a 20-year high, and approximately 94% of Bitcoin has been mined.

The market value of stablecoins has increased by 2%, and the long-term funds are looking favorable. The MVRV-Z Score is 2.3, which is in the middle stage, indicating that holders are overall slightly at a loss.

Institutional funds have seen a net outflow for two consecutive weeks, with investor interest waning, mainly due to the Federal Reserve possibly maintaining high interest rates for an extended period.

Futures Market

The funding rate is close to 0, and market sentiment is neutral. BTC positions remain stable. The long-short ratio is 1.7, still indicating market greed, but its reference value is limited.

spot market

The market is experiencing fluctuations and declines, undergoing tests from geopolitical risks. The BTC contract rate temporarily turned negative, indicating excessive pessimism. In the long term, although short-term liquidity may be constrained, the bull market trend remains, and there is still growth momentum in some sub-markets.

Market Data

public chain locked amount

The total TVL is approximately $93 billion, with a week-on-week increase of 6.9%. Excluding the Bitcoin chain, the TVL of mainstream public chains has generally risen. Among them, a certain public chain's increase reached 22%, with a monthly increase of over 2100%, and the total TVL surpassed $1 billion.

NFT market

The NFT-500 index has risen slightly. The floor prices of blue-chip projects have generally increased, with BAYC up 13% and Azuki up 8%, among others. However, market trading volume continues to decline, with a slight increase in the number of first-time and repeat buyers. Currently, the NFT market lacks blockbuster projects, and the overall atmosphere remains sluggish.