Market Watch: Powell hints at potential latency in interest rate cuts, Bitcoin breaks through $106,000

The macro environment is showing a positive shift. The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has alleviated geopolitical tensions, boosting market risk appetite, while crude oil prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels, and gold briefly dipped below the $3300 mark. In this context, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell sent key signals during a congressional hearing: although he did not explicitly rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, he emphasized the need for more data to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation, suggesting that it is more likely to wait for the September meeting to decide on policy direction. He indicated that if inflationary pressures are controlled, the Fed would "cut rates sooner rather than later," but given the current strong economy, there is no need for hasty action, while also noting that tariff uncertainty is the main reason for delaying rate cuts.

This statement was interpreted by the market as a dovish tendency, combined with the easing of geopolitical risks, driving a broad surge in US stocks— the Nasdaq 100 hit a record high, the Dow Jones soared 500 points in a single day, and US Treasury yields fell in sync with the dollar. It is noteworthy that Powell reiterated the independence of monetary policy in response to pressure for interest rate cuts, emphasizing that decisions are based solely on economic data. At the same time, observations from industry giants regarding the energy sector indicate that US shale oil producers have shifted from "increasing production to buffer oil prices" to "focusing on investment returns," which may weaken the traditional mechanisms for regulating energy price volatility.

In terms of regulation, a certain trading platform is seeking approval from the US SEC to launch tokenized stock trading services. Tokenized stocks allow for T+0 settlement, lower thresholds, reduced costs, and 24/7 trading. If the plan is approved, the platform will leverage blockchain technology to enter the stock trading field, further blurring the lines between traditional brokers and crypto platforms, challenging the position of traditional internet brokers. In addition, the new management of the SEC has shown a shift in its regulatory attitude towards the crypto industry; not only has it withdrawn lawsuits against several crypto companies, but it has also established a crypto task force to formulate regulations for digital assets. Industry experts believe that the US may gradually accept tokenized stock services in the future, paving the way for the application of blockchain technology in traditional stock trading, while providing investors with more diverse and flexible trading options.

Bitcoin has broken through $106,000 under macro favorable conditions, but its performance is relatively restrained. The founder of 10x Research stated that the 13% increase in Bitcoin since the beginning of the year contrasts with over $63 billion in capital inflows, reflecting the market's caution towards structural changes. According to analyst Murphy's observations, the concentration of chips within 5% of the current spot price of Bit has reached 14.5%. He pointed out that once the concentration exceeds 15%, the market may experience significant volatility.

From a technical analysis perspective, multiple analysts have offered similar predictions for Bitcoin's short-term trend. EliZ pointed out that the price may consolidate at the current level, and if it breaks above $107,000, it could aim for $110,000; otherwise, it may retreat below $102,000. Both AlphaBTC and Open4profit believe that Bitcoin may briefly rise to $107,000 before quickly dropping to test the liquidity in the range of $104,000 to $105,000.

In terms of Ethereum, a certain trading platform experienced a large-scale fund withdrawal on June 23, with over 4,000 BTC and 61,000 ETH flowing out of the platform, indicating that trader sentiment may be shifting from short-term speculation to long-term holding strategies. Swissblock's analysis further points out that as the fund rotation pattern shifts from Bitcoin to Ethereum, ETH may see a significant rise, as its profit supply ratio is far lower than that of Bitcoin, showing potential for a rebound. Analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly also noted that ETH is rapidly approaching $2,500, with significantly increased buying interest, and a doji candlestick reversal signal has appeared.

However, Marcel Pechman presented an opposing view, arguing that the ETH price has failed to break through $3000 for more than 20 weeks, which has damaged market confidence, and it faces fierce competition from other public chains, making it difficult to return to above $3000 in the short term. Finally, analyst Man of Bitcoin provided specific Fibonacci target levels, believing that the ETH upward targets are at $2475 and $2565, while the support levels are around $2331 and $2155.

In the market, some emerging tokens have caught the attention of investors. The market capitalization of $solami briefly reached $12 million before dropping to $5.3 million; $ACID quickly reached a market cap of $18 million with its "cross Web2 and Web3 intelligent agent" concept, claiming to have former OpenAI members involved in its development, and the mechanism of 20% token allocation to holders attracted follow-up funds. Meanwhile, $TECH's market cap peaked at $3.4 million, currently at $1.45 million, reportedly inspired by a web video.

In addition, the actions of traditional finance to布局 in the crypto space are accelerating. The US stock company Nano Labs announced the acquisition of BNB as a strategic reserve through a $500 million convertible bond, aiming to hold 5%-10% of the circulating supply of BNB, which drove the stock price to soar by 150% in a single day. In the Hong Kong market, a certain Chinese brokerage firm obtained a comprehensive virtual asset license, becoming the first Chinese brokerage to offer trading services for mainstream coins. This news stimulated its Hong Kong stock price to exceed a maximum increase of 100% during intraday trading, and also led to a surge of more than 8% in the related company Huamao Co., Ltd.

Key Data (as of June 25, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $106,202 (Year-to-date +13.61%), daily spot trading volume $27.86 billion
• Ethereum: $2,429.84 (Year-to-date -27.09%), daily spot trading volume is $15.253 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.05 sat/vB ETH: 3.12 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 64.6%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0751
• Sector fluctuations: AI down 3.45%; NFT sector down 2.83%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 79,735 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 187 million USD, including BTC liquidations of 34.3663 million USD, ETH liquidations of 68.176 million USD, and SEI liquidations of 6.9476 million USD.
• BTC Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper boundary line (105782.52 USD), Lower boundary line (103687.82 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (2485.15 USD), lower channel line (2435.94 USD)

Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

ETF Flow (as of June 24)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$589 million (net inflow for 11 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: +71.2379 million USD

Today's Outlook

• The Kroma L2 network will close on June 26, $KRO needs to be migrated to Ethereum.
• A trading platform will launch Sahara AI on June 26 (SAHARA)
• Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testifies before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee on the semiannual monetary policy report (June 25, 22:00)
• Venom (VENOM) will unlock approximately 59.26 million tokens at 4 PM on June 25, which is about 2.84% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately 10 million USD.
• AltLayer (ALT) will unlock approximately 240 million tokens on June 25 at 6 PM, which accounts for 6.83% of the current circulating supply, valued at about 6.7 million dollars.
• IOTA (IOTA) will unlock approximately 15.16 million tokens at 8 AM on June 25, which accounts for 0.39% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 2.3 million USD.
• Velo (VELO) will unlock approximately 182 million tokens on June 26 at 8 AM, which accounts for 2.47% of the current circulation, valued at around $2.1 million.
• Blast (BLAST) will unlock approximately 1.05 billion tokens on June 26 at 10 PM, which is 34.98% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $22.5 million.
• Undeads Games (UDS) will unlock approximately 2.15 million tokens at 8 AM on June 26, which is 2.13% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 2.3 million USD.

Top 500 market cap gains today: NEM (XEM) up 59.74%, Banana For Scale (BANANAS31) up 42.31%, Pundi AI (PUNDIAI) up 21.51%, Maple Finance (SYRUP) up 18.45%, Apu Apustaja (APU) up 15.91%.

Hot News

• "Triple War ETH 100% Win Rate Whale" has once again increased its position in ETH short orders, with the current position valued at 122 million USD.
• SharpLink Gaming increased its holdings by 12,207 ETH with an investment of $30.67 million, raising its total holdings to 188,478 ETH.
• Nano Labs announced a $500 million convertible note private placement for BNB strategic reserves, with Nano Labs' stock price rising over 150%.
• ProCap invested $387 million to acquire 3,724 Bitcoins.
• The Texas state government in the United States will allocate $10 million for the purchase of Bitcoin.
• Trump again calls on Powell: Should cut interest rates by at least 2 to 3 percentage points.
• A trading platform will launch trading pairs for Newton (NEWT) against KRW, BTC, and USDT.
• Grayscale Space and Time (SXT) Trust registered in Delaware
• Celestia co-founder: has over $100 million in funds reserves, enough to support operations for more than 6 years.
• A suspected ConsenSys-related address has purchased 3,704 ETH, worth 8.91 million dollars.