BTC breaks 11.8, analysis of the reasons for the new high

Core thrust: Institutional buying + Policy dividends
1. ETF Crazy Fundraising
- The net inflow of spot ETF in a single month reached 14.4 billion USD (BlackRock's IBIT reached a daily high of 500 million USD), institutional funds continue to consume exchange liquidity, and the circulation has dropped to a historical low.
- Corporate hoarding of coins accelerates: MicroStrategy holds over **600,000 BTC, and Trump Media Group plans to launch a crypto ETF, further tightening supply.
2. Regulatory Breakthrough
- The Trump administration established a "National Strategic Crypto Reserve" and appointed several crypto-friendly members to the SEC, shifting the policy towards easing.
- Hong Kong and the UAE are promoting a licensing mechanism, while Latin American countries are launching digital asset projects to lower compliance thresholds.
3. Macroeconomic Variables Assistance
- The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut is heating up (September probability 48.9%), the US dollar index is weakening, and the BTC "digital gold" narrative is strengthening.
- The scale of U.S. debt has exceeded 35 trillion USD, and anxiety over the debt crisis is driving up demand for safe-haven assets.
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📉 On-chain + Technical Analysis: Healthy Upward Structure
- Holders are reluctant to sell: The inflow of BTC into exchanges has decreased by 32,000 coins per day (an eight-year low), and the supply growth from long-term holders exceeds the issuance of new coins, forming a "deflationary spiral."
- Technical Breakthrough: Daily volume breaks through the key resistance of $110,000, Fibonacci targets point to $121,000→$135,000, RSI (60) not overbought.
- Options Betting: Deribit's call open interest is concentrated at $120,000-$150,000, with the market betting on a surge in Q3.
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Risk Warning
- Short-term volatility: If the CPI on July 15 exceeds expectations ( >3.4%), it may trigger a pullback to the $112,500 support.
- Leverage liquidation: $107,350-$109,800 is the liquidation zone, breaking this level may trigger a chain reaction.
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Trend Summary
> "Institutional Bull Market" New Paradigm:
> This round of increase is driven by three engines: ETF accumulation + policy easing + macro hedging, with no retail investor leverage bubble.
> Key observation points:
> 🔹 July 15th US CPI data;
> 🔹 Exchange BTC inventory (if it falls below 1.7 million coins or accelerates to rise).
#BTC再创新高#