July 12, 2025

The market continues to consolidate at a high level. Generally speaking, we treat this type of upward consolidation as a continuation pattern, meaning we continue to be bullish. The consolidation process is to digest profit-taking and prepare for the subsequent rise. From a timing perspective, this position has basically broken through, but in terms of price, it has not completely escaped the pressure zone. However, the new space is already worth looking forward to. In terms of timing, it is not too early to start now, and it may even be a bit late, as the fluctuating upward movement might still take a few months.

In this position, can we consider taking some positions? My understanding is that we can, either take a 10% position to sell or do swing trading. A larger logic is that even if there is an overall bull market in the second half of the year, it is not suitable to increase funds for buying, because from the on-chain data of Bitcoin, large holders are generally in a selling state. As for why large holders are selling while Bitcoin's price keeps hitting new highs, it is mainly because traditional funds led by MicroStrategy are entering the market, but this buying pressure will definitely exhaust one day. Although it may not be very soon, I think if the expected bull market occurs in the second half of this year, we still need to take large positions for profit-taking.

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