Analysis of Potential Price Peaks for Bitcoin in the Current Cycle

As Bitcoin shows a strong upward momentum, investors can't help but start thinking: What level can Bitcoin's price reach in this bull market? This article will explore the potential highest price Bitcoin may reach by discussing a series of on-chain valuation models and cycle analysis tools. Although predictions cannot replace flexible decision-making based on real-time data, these analytical frameworks can help us better understand the current market position and potential future trends.

Price Prediction Tool

Several historically accurate valuation models provide us with valuable references. While reacting based on real-time data is usually more effective than blind predictions, studying these indicators still offers important contextual information for market behavior. When macroeconomic factors, derivatives, and on-chain data begin to send warning signals, it is typically a good time to take profits, regardless of whether a specific price target has been reached. Nevertheless, exploring these valuation tools remains instructive and can assist in strategic decision-making when combined with broader market analysis.

Key models include:

Top Cap (: Predict peak valuation by multiplying the historical average market cap by 35. This model accurately predicted the peak in 2017, but overestimated during the 2020-2021 cycle. Currently, the model predicts over $500,000, which seems a bit overly optimistic.

Delta Peak ) Delta Top (: By subtracting the average market value from the realized market cap ) based on the cost basis of all circulating BTC (, a more realistic prediction is generated. This model predicted a top of 80,000 to 100,000 USD in the previous cycle.

Terminal Price ): Based on the supply-adjusted Coin Days Destroyed ( calculation, it is the model closest to each peak in history, including the $64,000 peak in 2021. The current prediction is around $221,000, potentially rising to $250,000 or higher, considered the most reliable macro Bitcoin top prediction model.

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Peak Prediction

The MVRV ratio is another powerful indicator that compares market capitalization with realized capitalization, providing a window into investor sentiment. This ratio typically peaks around 4 during major cycles, and is currently at 2.34, indicating significant room for upward movement. Historically, when MVRV approaches 3.5 to 4, long-term holders begin to realize substantial profits, usually marking the maturity of the cycle. However, due to diminishing returns, this cycle may not reach a full 4. Using a more conservative estimate of 3.5, we can start to predict a more realistic peak.

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Calculate Target Price

Timing and valuation are equally important. By analyzing the "BTC growth since the self-cycle low", we found that previous Bitcoin cycles peaked about 1060 days after the low. We are currently about 930 days into this cycle. If this pattern continues, the peak may arrive in about 130 days. Historically, price increases driven by FOMO) fear of missing out( typically occur at the end of the cycle, leading to a rapid increase in the proxy indicator for the realized price) investor average cost basis(. For example, in the last 130 days of 2017, the realized price increased by 260%; in 2021, it increased by 130%. Assuming the growth rate is halved due to diminishing returns, a 65% increase from the current realized price of $47,000 could reach about $78,000 by October 18.

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Combining the projected price of $78,000 and a conservative MVRV target of 3.5, we derive a potential price peak for Bitcoin at $273,000. While this may seem ambitious, historical parabolic surges suggest that such a trend could occur within weeks rather than months. Although the peak is more likely to be between $150,000 and $200,000, mathematical and on-chain evidence indicates that higher valuations are at least possible. It is worth noting that these models adjust dynamically, and if market euphoria intensifies towards the end of the cycle, predictions may accelerate even further.

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Conclusion

Predicting the exact peak of Bitcoin is essentially uncertain, as there are too many variables to fully consider. What we can do is establish a probabilistic framework based on historical precedents and on-chain data. Tools like the MVRV ratio, terminal price, and Delta vertex have repeatedly proven their value in predicting market tops. While a target of $273,000 seems optimistic, it is rooted in historical patterns, current network behavior, and cyclical timing logic. Ultimately, the best strategy is to react based on data rather than fixed price levels. Use these tools to refine investment hypotheses, but remain flexible enough to take profits in a timely manner when broader ecosystem signals indicate a top.

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