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The encryption industry has entered a stagnation period, with innovation and demand being redefined.
The Stagnation and Transformation of the Crypto Assets Industry
In the past year, the Crypto Assets industry has engaged in two-way interactions with traditional finance, technology giants, and the global political arena. The digital currency introduced by a certain politician marks the end of encryption liquidity, while the integration within the industry has only just begun.
A series of encryption-related events in Pakistan, Bhutan, and the Middle East ultimately became the last straw for retail investors. In this situation, many may choose to give up and seek other opportunities.
The Stagnation Period of the Crypto Industry
Human beings often pursue freedom in traditional environments, while yearn for tradition in free environments. This contradictory psychology is also reflected in the Crypto Assets industry.
When the Bitcoin spot ETF is approved, many people believe that Bitcoin will change the world. However, the reality is that Bitcoin is more like a mapping asset of the M2 money supply. It cannot effectively combat inflation, nor is it easy to serve as a booster for the bull market in the crypto space.
Recently, there have been some eye-catching events in the market, such as a self-rescue operation by a trading platform and the launch of a wallet. However, these events seem more like a profitless farce.
There is nothing new under the sun; the Crypto Assets industry is currently in a major stagnation period.
Ethereum was once hailed as "an innovation at the level of human civilization," but it has also failed to withstand a significant price drop. Now, it is attempting to re-enter the L1 competition by introducing Risc-V technology. However, it remains uncertain whether this technological improvement can truly save Ethereum.
The strategy of staking L1 on a certain DEX began before its major events and continues afterwards. However, L2 or the scaling layer in its ecosystem may actually be draining its resources, similar to parasitic fish on a whale.
The market model we are familiar with has changed. Stablecoins, rather than Ethereum, are the true currency.
Changes in the Market Information Ecosystem
Invalid information is eroding the entire market. We may experience a shift from KOL-led to KOL institution-led, and then to centralized exchange-led phases. This trend has already been reflected in the recent Dubai Music Festival, where project parties, opinion leaders, and exchanges are all transaction-oriented.
This is not a criticism of opinion leaders, but rather an acknowledgment of market rules. From early community AMAs to community-based platforms, and then to the media war, the peak of opinion leaders' influence also signifies its end, leading to a moment of reckoning for trust and influence in transactions.
A new differentiation trend has emerged in the current cycle, with invalid information mainly divided into two categories:
Changes in the Investment Environment
The venture capital industry is also experiencing both collapse and perseverance. VC firms in Silicon Valley, the Middle East, and Europe, supported by US dollar capital, are laying out plans for the next phase, while Chinese VC firms are facing continuous pressure from LPs and ROI, gradually drifting away from innovation and shifting more towards a market-making role.
Real innovation may emerge in the emerging technology parks. Chinese founders may need to seek funding in Silicon Valley and Wall Street, but projects that can truly meet the market's next phase of demand may not be recognized by the existing investment framework.
Exchanges are on the lookout for any potential sources of traffic, willing to waste resources rather than miss out on possible opportunities. In this situation, former employees of major companies from the internet industry transitioning to crypto exchanges may become the main beneficiaries.
It is worth noting that the average tenure of a certain tech giant has increased from 4 months in 2018 to 7-8 months in 2024, yet a large number of talents are still flowing into society, with top Crypto Assets exchanges becoming their first choice.
The main beneficiaries of venture capital are graduates from top schools, while the beneficiaries of exchanges are talents eliminated by large companies. They not only bring expertise and impressive resumes but also introduce deeper operational standards, which in turn leads to increased intermediary costs and a decline in capital efficiency.
The vibrant era of the Crypto Assets industry, characterized by diversity and a focus on making money, is long gone. Ongoing institutionalization is becoming a shackle for the development of the industry, making the encryption sector increasingly resemble the traditional internet industry.
The Relationship Between Innovation and Demand
Having confidence in the Crypto Assets industry but feeling worried about personal prospects may be the mindset of many practitioners. This industry is no longer a niche field filled with opportunities for instant wealth; practitioners are being massively replaced by talent from the internet and financial sectors.
In every crisis in the crypto industry, new asset issuance methods emerge. For example, the ERC-20 standard supports the development of DeFi, while NFTs support projects like BAYC. Now, we have entered a new phase of stablecoins.
It is worth noting that the core of the last round of on-chain activity was Ethereum and lending, which amplified capital efficiency through a "LEGO-style" combination. However, this round's Ethereum and staking model did not replicate this miracle.
Yield-bearing stablecoins (YBS) have become a new innovation point. They may create new demand, not because existing stablecoins cannot meet the demand, but because YBS offers a new possibility.
YBS may become a new form of asset issuance. There are three possible predictions for the future:
YBS has become a new asset issuance method, and the Ethereum technology upgrade has been successful. ETH may replace BTC as the new Crypto Assets growth engine, and re-staking ETH could become real currency.
YBS becomes a new asset issuance method, but Ethereum is gradually declining. YBS may be swallowed by dollar assets like government bonds, financial technology 2.0 becomes a reality, and Web 3.0 may become a bubble;
YBS failed to become a new asset issuance method, and Ethereum rapidly declined. Blockchain may move towards "de-coinization," at most evolving into version 1.5 of financial technology.
Conclusion
Ethereum currently relies mainly on technical narratives, while users tend to embrace stablecoins.
The industry hopes that users will accept YBS more, rather than certain centralized stablecoins. This reflects the divide between the industry and the market.
Before mainstreaming YBS supported by Crypto Assets, overly promoting blockchain payment might be premature. Payment should be a direction for YBS development, not a prerequisite.
The Crypto Assets industry should not be limited to becoming Financial Technology 2.0, but should explore broader development pathways.