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The US economy faces stagflation as Hong Kong approves the Bitcoin ETF, leading a new era in Asia.
The U.S. economy faces high inflation challenges, while Asia welcomes a new era of Bitcoin ETF.
Recently, the U.S. economy has shown signs of high inflation coupled with slowing growth, raising concerns about "stagflation" in the market. Nevertheless, there are no signs of systemic risk in the global capital markets. Meanwhile, the Asian financial markets have made significant breakthroughs in the cryptocurrency sector, bringing new opportunities for global investors.
In the first quarter, the GDP of the United States grew by only 1.6% year-on-year, far below expectations. However, the core PCE price index increased by 3.7% during the same period, exceeding expectations and indicating that inflationary pressures still exist. This economic situation stands in stark contrast to the optimistic expectations at the beginning of the year, forcing the market to reassess the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
Although some investors are beginning to bet on the possibility of continued interest rate hikes, the general consensus is that the Federal Reserve is more likely to delay the timing of rate cuts and reduce the number and extent of rate cuts. It is expected that, as commodity prices stabilize and the labor market rebalances, core inflation in the United States is likely to gradually decline.
It is worth noting that the overall attitude of Federal Reserve officials is dovish, and they have not released clear signals for further interest rate hikes. This may imply that the United States still has other policy tools to address inflation issues, without the need for excessive panic.
This month, geopolitical conflicts have frequently occurred, causing short-term shocks to the capital market. However, major countries have remained relatively restrained, and no significant escalation of conflicts has been observed. In modern society, the likelihood of large-scale wars erupting under nuclear deterrence is extremely low, and the impact of geopolitical factors on financial markets is often temporary.
After experiencing a sustained strong rise for 5 months, the US stock market saw a significant adjustment this month. Tech stocks, in particular, were affected, with some institutions downgrading the ratings of tech giants. The Japanese stock market also faced pressure, mainly due to the depreciation of the yen. However, other major markets such as Europe and India performed relatively stable, showing no significant pullback.
The cryptocurrency market has performed poorly this month, with Bitcoin prices briefly falling below $60,000 and Ethereum dipping below $2,800. Notably, the price of Bitcoin has shown a high correlation with certain tech stocks recently, sparking discussions in the market.
Despite the challenges facing the crypto market, there are still positive developments. On April 29, Hong Kong officially approved 6 virtual asset spot ETFs, including 3 Bitcoin ETFs and 3 Ethereum ETFs. This move not only provides investors with diversified options but is also expected to bring significant incremental funds to the market.
As more countries and regions, such as Australia, plan to launch Bitcoin ETFs, the secondary market for crypto assets is expected to exhibit more decentralized characteristics. This diversified development helps to maintain the core value of Bitcoin, preventing its pricing power from being concentrated in a single country or institution.
Overall, despite inflationary pressures in the United States, global financial markets remain relatively stable. The innovative initiatives in the cryptocurrency sector in Asia, particularly the approval of the Hong Kong Bitcoin ETF, mark significant progress in the region's financial markets. This not only provides investors with new asset allocation options but may also drive the cryptocurrency market towards a more mature and regulated direction, heralding the emergence of new investment opportunities and market trends.