Bit Little Deer November Business Data Analysis and Future Outlook

Bit Deer (US stock code BTDR) announced its operating data for November, which has attracted widespread attention in the market as its self-developed A2 mining machine (Sealminer A2) officially began mass production, with the first batch sales reaching 30,000 units. This marks an important progress for the company in the research and production of mining machines.

Self-developed Chips and Mining Machine Sales: A Reflection of Core Competitiveness

The self-developed chip capability has always been the core competitiveness of mining machine manufacturers. In the past six months, Bit Deer successfully completed the first tape-out of the A2 and A3 mining machine chips. According to public information, the operating parameters of the A2 mining machine are already leading all currently sold and operational mining machines in the market. As for the yet-to-be-released A3 mining machine, based on known parameters, it is expected to become the largest in single-hash computing power globally, with the most optimal energy consumption ratio. The A3 mining machine is expected to be primarily used for the deployment of the company’s self-operated computing power in the short term, rather than for external sales.

Electric Field Deployment: Global Layout, Cost Advantages Are Obvious

By the end of November, Bit Deer had completed the deployment of 895MW of power plants in the United States, Norway, and Bhutan. Additionally, there are 1645MW of projects under construction, of which 1415MW is expected to be completed in the latter half of 2025. The company has also established a dedicated department focused on acquiring more power plant projects, with the expectation of adding over 1GW of power plant capacity by 2026. Notably, the average electricity price of all self-operated power plants is less than $0.04/kWh, which holds an absolute leading advantage in the industry.

Self-operated Mine Profitability Analysis

According to model predictions, the shutdown price for Bit Deer’s self-operated mining farm is approximately $35,000 for Bitcoin. When the price of Bitcoin exceeds $150,000, the pre-tax profit growth rate of the self-operated mining farm will surpass the rate of increase in Bitcoin prices. If the price of Bitcoin reaches $200,000, the pre-tax profit margin of the self-operated mining farm is expected to approach 80%.

Future Development Strategy

1. Mining machine sales and self-use ratio: It is estimated that by the end of 2025, the company's self-operated computing power may account for about 20% of the total network computing power. The company currently has approximately $690 million in cash on hand, and considering the time lag between the deployment of self-operated computing power and its output, refinancing may be necessary.

2. AI Computing Power Layout: Bit Deer has begun deploying Nvidia H200 chips in TIER3 data centers for smart cloud services, aimed at building AI computing power. The company plans to invest at least 200MW of electricity in the short term to deploy high-end chips and start providing cloud computing services for clients such as MEGA 7.

Investment Advice

Bit Deer's current position is at a favorable moment of timing, location, and harmony among people. The first growth curve (mining machine sales and self-operated mining farms) and the second growth curve (AI computing power) are expected to rise simultaneously. Among U.S. mining stocks, Bit Deer may be one of the most cost-effective targets.

According to the current valuation method of mainstream mining companies in North America, which averages $170 million/EH, it is expected that the actual self-operated mining capacity of Bit Deer may reach between 120-220 EH/s in the next two years. Based on this estimate, the company's market value could range from $20.4 billion to $37.4 billion, which indicates a potential increase of 4.8 to 9.7 times compared to the current stock price.

Investment Risks

1. Bitcoin price volatility risk
2. Risks of TSMC's current chips due to sanctions