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Bitcoin Spot ETF could become the bull run engine with a probability as high as 95%
Bitcoin Spot ETF: The New Favorite of Capital and a Turning Point for the Market
After a long bear market, the market's demand for positive news is growing stronger. Simply relying on innovative projects has become insufficient to boost overall market sentiment, and there is an urgent need for new breakout points. The Bitcoin Spot ETF is likely to play this role and become a catalyst for the next crypto bull market.
Despite the cautious stance of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) towards the Bitcoin Spot ETF and its repeated delays in approval, the market remains optimistic about its eventual approval. According to current predictions, the probability of the Bitcoin Spot ETF being approved within this year is 75%, and it could reach 95% by the end of 2024 at the latest. This will become a significant potential advantage and is expected to serve as the engine for a new bull market.
Bitcoin Spot ETF: Concepts and Advantages
The Bitcoin Spot ETF is a fund that allows investors to buy and sell real Bitcoins at the current market price. The fund directly buys, sells, and holds real Bitcoins, enabling investors to participate in the market without having to manage their own Bitcoin wallets.
Compared to futures ETFs, spot ETFs have the following advantages:
These advantages make the Bitcoin Spot ETF a favored investment tool among capital, expected to attract more investors into the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin Spot ETF Application Status
Since 2013, institutions in the United States have applied for Bitcoin Spot ETFs every year, but none have been approved. It wasn't until June of this year that BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, submitted an application, reigniting market expectations.
BlackRock manages assets totaling over $9 trillion. This application also proposes a certain cryptocurrency exchange platform as the custodian and data provider, with Bank of New York Mellon as the cash custodian. BlackRock has had only one of its 576 ETF applications rejected in the past, and the market is optimistic about this application.
As a result, several institutions that previously failed in their applications have rejoined the application process. As of August, eight well-known institutions have applied for a Bitcoin Spot ETF. After a decade of struggle, the "curse" of the U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF being unable to be approved may be broken in this wave of applications.
Potential Impact of Bitcoin Spot ETF on the Industry
Expand market size and participation: As a major exchange product, ETFs have a total scale of $7 trillion. Bitcoin Spot ETF will attract more investors and expand the overall scale of the cryptocurrency market.
Providing access channels for traditional financial institutions: Spot ETF offers a convenient and compliant investment method in the cryptocurrency market for traditional financial institutions that are restricted by regulations.
Enhance market transparency and compliance: ETFs listed on exchanges are directly subject to regulatory review, providing a safer and more reliable investment environment for capital.
Expected to be a market turning point: Amid the current market downturn, the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETF could become a key factor in stimulating the market to shift from bearish to bullish.
Accelerating the Mainstreaming of Crypto Assets: ETFs, as traditional investment tools, will enhance the awareness and popularity of cryptocurrencies, attracting more institutional investors.
Promote Regulatory Improvement: Supervision of shared agreements will increase market transparency and help formulate policies and standards more suitable for the cryptocurrency market.
Conclusion
Although the SEC has not made a final decision, logically, having allowed high-risk Bitcoin futures ETFs to be listed, there is no reason to refuse spot ETFs. The new application has joined a shared supervision agreement, eliminating the reasons for previous rejections. There are reports that a U.S. securities exchange is preparing a regulatory cooperation agreement with a Bitcoin trading platform. The SEC may be waiting for traditional financial institutions to complete their infrastructure development. Therefore, it seems to be only a matter of time before Bitcoin spot ETFs are listed in the U.S.