The Federal Reserve (FED) maintains the Intrerest Rate, the crypto market shows calm but there are undercurrents.

The Federal Reserve (FED) decided to keep the benchmark Intrerest Rate unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50% at its recent meeting, marking the fourth consecutive meeting of stable rates, which aligns with market expectations. Although the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook has somewhat diminished, the FED stated that it remains at a high level. At the same time, the FED lowered its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. in 2025 to 1.4%, while raising its inflation forecast to 3%, indicating a dilemma between economic recovery and inflation control.

It is worth noting that the Federal Reserve's expectations for future interest rate cuts have also been adjusted. While two rate cuts (a total of 50 basis points) are still expected in 2025, the expectation for rate cuts in 2026 has been revised down from two to one (only 25 basis points). More importantly, among the 19 Federal Reserve officials, 7 believe that there may not be any rate cuts in 2025, reflecting a divergence of views within the Federal Reserve regarding the future policy path.

Despite the significant impact of The Federal Reserve (FED) decisions on the global financial markets, the reaction of the crypto market has been relatively calm. Bitcoin prices have remained around $104,000, while Ethereum hovers around $2,520, and other major cryptocurrencies like XRP and Solana are also mostly flat. However, the internal tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the market remains intense, with data showing that there were as much as $224 million in leveraged liquidations that day, with Ethereum having the largest liquidation volume, followed by Bitcoin.

It is worth mentioning that institutional funds continue to flow into the crypto market. Data shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $216 million on June 17, while the spot Ethereum ETF also saw an inflow of $11 million, providing support for the market bottom.

Market experts believe that investors are showing cautious sentiment after the Federal Reserve's decision, all waiting for clearer macroeconomic signals. Despite the tense global situation, the crypto market is relatively stable, with Bitcoin's price fluctuating within a narrow range around $105,000, and the daily volatility is below 2.1%, with no large-scale panic selling.

However, industry insiders warn not to ignore the escalating macro risks. If geopolitical tensions worsen or begin to affect the financial system through sanctions, infrastructure disruptions, or capital controls, the crypto market will also be impacted. Currently, Bitcoin's market dominance is close to 66%, indicating that in the current environment, investors' risk appetite for smaller cryptocurrencies is decreasing.

On-chain data provides some interesting insights. The market value of Bitcoin compared to the realized value ratio (MVRV Ratio) is currently 2.25. Although it is more than double the realized value, it is still relatively low compared to past cyclical peaks, which suggests that the market may have room for further growth.

Another notable trend is that the "old supply" of Bitcoin (referring to Bitcoins that have not been moved for at least ten years) is growing faster than the daily issuance of new Bitcoins. Since April 2024, an average of 566 Bitcoins have entered the "over ten years" unused queue each day, surpassing the daily circulation of 450 new Bitcoins added by miners. This trend may further strengthen the scarcity of Bitcoin.

Analysis and prediction suggest that by 2035, the "old supply" of Bitcoin in circulation may exceed 30%. Although this scarcity does not directly guarantee a price increase, the continuous rise in Bitcoin controlled by long-term holders will tighten the available supply of Bitcoin for trading, making price discovery increasingly reliant on marginal flows.

Overall, the scarcity characteristics of Bitcoin are continuously strengthening, which may reshape its value discovery logic in the future, becoming a core advantage that distinguishes it from other assets. However, market participants still need to closely monitor the developments in the macroeconomic situation and global affairs, as well as their potential impact on the crypto market.