The Analysis Company Shared July Expectations for Bitcoin and Altcoins! Will It Continue to Sleep, or Will the Giant Wake Up?

July may continue to be a historically low volume period for the cryptocurrency markets despite a busy political and economic agenda. According to a new report by Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33 Research, this summer may also be calm, as in previous years.

Lunde reminded that July is a period in the US known for its volatility referred to as the "Trump trade," highlighting important agenda items such as the budget proposal, the resumption of tariff decisions, and the schedule for crypto-related executive orders. However, despite all these potential price movements, past Julys have also been marked by low volume trading periods.

"In July 2022, Three Arrows Capital and Celsius went bankrupt. Last year, there were events such as the assassination attempt on Trump and Biden's resignation. During the same period, BTC distributions from Mt. Gox and sales by the German government put pressure on the market. Despite all this, the second lowest monthly trading volume in the last four years was again seen in July," said Lunde, who mentioned that the market enters a kind of "sleep" during the summer months.

So what is on the agenda in July?

• July 4: The "One Big Beautiful Bill" budget law, which is expected to be signed by President Trump and could increase the U.S. budget deficit to as much as $3.3 trillion, may come into effect. This could create a short-term positive impact for digital assets like Bitcoin, which are limited supply assets.
• July 9: The 90-day customs duty deferral is ending. New trade measures by Trump targeting certain countries are expected. It is noted that this situation could create pressure in the markets.
• July 22: The final assessment and proposal submission date for the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve SBR, which is planned to be established with approximately $21 billion worth of seized crypto assets amounting to about 200,000 BTC signed in March.

Since March, the lack of sharing details about this reserve with the public has increased uncertainty. Lunde warned investors that an announcement could be made at any moment regarding this matter.

According to Lunde, despite Bitcoin being only 3% below its all-time high, funding rates, leveraged ETF exposures, trading volumes, and options data reflect a cautious market stance. This is seen as a factor that reduces the risk of sudden liquidations in potential upward movements.

"Assuming that this summer will be as quiet as in previous years may seem lazy. However, my current base scenario is that there is nothing new. Therefore, the best strategy is to remain patient and maintain current positions," he said.