During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday of #BTC行情分析# , the financial markets were shaken by Trump's "raid". The market had originally expected stable conditions after the PCE data met expectations, but unexpectedly, Trump suddenly released two major clauses, directly crashing Bitcoin from 1.04 million to 1.03 million, with alts suffering a complete defeat. Currently, the market focus is on the support strength in the 1.02-1.03 million range and the subsequent developments of Trump's big stick policy.

The Trump team directly invoked two provisions of the Trade Act of 1974 this time:
Clause 122: Impose a maximum 15% stick on global goods for 150 days, resulting in indiscriminate strikes;
Section 301: Tailor-made sticks for major trading partners, such as tax hikes on the European Union and the Eastern Kingdom, to achieve precise strikes. Economic hawk Navarro and others have said that they will reject the trade court judgment and claim that the talks are "close to a major agreement", but the market interprets it as a complete failure of the expectation of a big stick cancellation. U.S. stocks took the lead in falling, Bitcoin became the main outlet for capital withdrawal due to thin liquidity, and the long-short game intensified over the weekend.
Three Major Factors Behind the Bitcoin Flash Crash
Midnight Raid Sanctions: Trump announced sanctions against Dongda at midnight, causing the S&P 500 and Bitcoin to plummet simultaneously, triggering programmatic trading sell-offs;
The US stock market is closed, and at the time of the 6 o'clock tariff threat escalation, funds are forced to flow into the cryptocurrency market for hedging, which in turn intensifies the selling pressure;
Interest rate cut expectations fluctuate: Although CME still bets on a rate cut in September, poor communication between Trump and Powell has led to a depletion of market patience, and the strong dollar suppresses risk assets. It is notable that Bitcoin has shown strong support in the range of 1.02-1.03 million, which is both the lower boundary of prior fluctuations and a psychological defense line for bulls. If there are no further negative developments over the weekend, the likelihood of a rebound from an oversold position is quite high.
Three major variables to watch in the market.
Liquidity trap risk: In a low trading volume environment over the weekend, any news can be magnified. Recently, Bitcoin exchange fund outflows have reached a record high, indicating a strong cautious sentiment in the market;
Policy games escalate: If the tariff war continues, the Federal Reserve may be forced to cut interest rates early to save the market. However, Trump's recent extension of EU tariff negotiations until July 9 shows that there are still uncertainties in the policy.
Key price level dispute: If the 1.02 million threshold is breached, it may trigger a spread of bearish sentiment. Conversely, holding this price level will maintain the upward trend and attract bottom-fishing capital to enter the market.