#WCTC S7 报名开启# Bitcoin pullback: a mid-game break in the bull run or the end of the market? In-depth analysis.

Bitcoin entered a pullback mode after reaching a high of 100,000 USD, which left many investors in confusion and entanglement, as they began to speculate whether this is a brief pause in the bull run or if the market has already reached its end.
First, let's analyze the halving mechanism of Bitcoin, which is a key factor. As is well known, Bitcoin's production halves every four years. Historically, after the previous halvings, the market usually sees a real price peak about 1 to 1.5 years later. Based on this timing, the end of 2025 to the beginning of 2026 is more likely to be the peak moment of the market, while the current pullback seems more like a halftime break. Comparing the extent of the pullback, this time it has only dropped by 30%, while looking back to 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin experienced significant pullbacks of 45% and 53%, respectively. In contrast, the current pullback is not considered exaggerated. In addition, the cost line for miners is currently around $78,000. If the price really falls to this level, miners, due to cost considerations, will be reluctant to sell their Bitcoin, which will form a certain degree of price support, like a natural moat.
Next, we turn our attention to the global monetary policy environment. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates next year, and other central banks may also follow suit by increasing the money supply. Bitcoin has a high correlation with the global money supply, and when the money supply increases in the market, it often drives up the price of Bitcoin. Recently, gold prices have reached new highs, which also reflects the demand for value-preserving assets from large funds. As an emerging value-preserving asset, Bitcoin will naturally attract attention.
However, short-term risks cannot be ignored. Currently, within the price range of $70,000 to $75,000, there exists a long leverage of $42 billion. If the price falls below this range, it could trigger a chain reaction, much like knocking down a row of dominoes, leading to a series of liquidations and further price declines. From a technical analysis perspective, $73,000 is a key support level. If this level can be maintained and the price can break through the $90,000 mark, it can basically confirm that the pullback has ended. On the contrary, if the price falls below $83,000, it could further drop to the miner cost area.
In terms of operational advice, there are two points that need special attention. If the price can break through 88,000 USD, it may initiate a new round of upward trend, at which point it is advisable to consider increasing positions appropriately. However, if the price falls below 83,000 USD, especially for investors holding high-position chips, it is best to set a stop-loss line around 82,000 USD to prevent a black swan event from leading to a complete reversal of profits. It is important to remember that the overall market is still in a bull run cycle, and investors should not be easily swayed by short-term price fluctuations to exit their positions. At the same time, attention should also be paid to controlling leverage risks to avoid unnecessary losses due to excessive leverage.
The above content is for reference only, investors should also consider their own situation when making decisions.