Crypto Market Weekly Report: BTC falls below $80,000, global market turmoil intensifies

This week, the crypto market experienced significant volatility, with Bitcoin (BTC) price falling from $82,379.98 at the beginning of the week to $78,370.75 by the weekend, resulting in a weekly decline of 4.87% and a fluctuation of 13.92%. BTC is currently operating within a descending channel and has temporarily stabilized near the annual line (365-day moving average).

The main reason for the market turmoil is the "reciprocal tariff" policy introduced by the U.S. government. On April 2, the U.S. President announced a minimum baseline tariff of 10% on global trade partners, with some countries facing tariffs as high as 34%. This measure triggered shocks in the global financial markets, with the three major U.S. stock indices falling significantly this week, as the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones indices dropped by 10.02%, 9.08%, and 7.86%, respectively.

The Chinese government responded quickly, announcing a 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the United States, effective at the same time as the United States. This trade friction may escalate further, and the EU and the UK may also implement countermeasures.

Nevertheless, the U.S. non-farm payroll data for March performed strongly, with an increase of 228,000 jobs, far exceeding market expectations. The Federal Reserve Chairman stated that the U.S. economy remains strong, but tariffs will weigh on the economy and inflation. Market expectations for a rate cut in June have exceeded 90%.

In this macro environment, the crypto market has also been affected. This week, capital outflows from the crypto market reached $333 million, with $178 million and $108 million flowing out of the BTC spot ETF and stablecoins, respectively. On-chain data shows that the number of BTC flowing into exchanges reached 188,614.7 coins, with short-term holders intensifying their sell-offs, while long-term holders slightly decreased.

It is worth noting that since late February, the short-term holder group has been in a state of unrealized loss for most of the time, with the recent unrealized loss ratio reaching 16%, setting a record for the largest unrealized loss in this cycle. This group is under significant pressure, which may lead to further price falls. In contrast, the long-term holder group continues to play a stabilizing role in the market, increasing their holdings by 53,300 BTC this week.

According to an analysis from a certain data platform, the BTC cycle indicator is 0.375, indicating that the market is in an upward consolidation phase. However, unless U.S. stocks rebound or the Federal Reserve implements a rate cut policy, it will be difficult for the market to gain upward momentum.

In this complex market environment, investors need to remain vigilant, closely monitor global economic conditions and policy changes, while cautiously assessing the risks and opportunities of various assets.