Analysis: The U.S. economy may experience a pullback of at least 10% in the stock market next year.

BlockBeats news, on December 31st, Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group, stated in his blog that although policy officials and investors seem increasingly concerned about the possibility of an overheated rise in the economy, he believes that a more likely occurrence in 2025 is an unexpected economic slowdown, which could eventually lead to a pullback of at least 10% in the stock market. Jim Paulsen pointed out that historical data since 2003 shows that fluctuations in bond yields usually lead to unexpected changes in the economy, with a decline in yields indicating an improvement in the economy three months later, and vice versa. In his view, the bond yield hovering around 4.6% (reaching 4.63% last week) suggests that the unexpected economic index will slow down to -35 in the first quarter, and GDP will also slow down. Jim Paulsen said that if the unexpected economic slowdown intensifies concerns, the stock market may temporarily pump, even if it is not a pullback of 10% to 15%.