Bitcoin Price Prediction: On-chain indicator MVRV shows signs of a bull run, BTC is about to break the key resistance at $119,900.

After a week of sideways consolidation, Bitcoin is showing signs of strength. The key on-chain indicator MVRV ratio (currently at 2.2) is approaching the 365-day moving average, and history shows that such convergence often signals the start of a bull run. Meanwhile, the futures market volume bubble chart indicates a retreat from overheated speculation, with the market shifting towards spot demand. Technically, BTC is close to the middle band of the Bollinger Bands ($118,327), and the narrowing bandwidth suggests that a market turning point is near. Bulls need to break through $119,900 (Bollinger upper band) to initiate a new rise, targeting $123,000 historical high; if it falls below $116,700 (Bollinger lower band), the bullish structure will be damaged.

1. On-chain indicators light up green: MVRV ratio issues a bullish signal

After a week of Sideways Movement, Bitcoin shows signs of consolidating for a breakout. CryptoQuant analyst CoinCare noted in an analysis on July 31:

• MVRV Ratio (Market Value/Realized Value) Current value is 2.2, converging towards the 365-day moving average.
• Historical Patterns: Such convergence periods often occur before the bull run of Bitcoin. This indicator typically subsequently moves upward to approach the "overvalued area" near 3.7.
• Market analogy: This pattern is similar to how stock prices do not linger near long-term moving averages for long, and then often make a directional choice.

II. Futures Market Cools Down: Spot Demand May Become the Dominant Force

(Bitcoin Futures Trading Volume Bubble Chart | Source: CryptoQuant)

Another analyst from CryptoQuant, ShayanMarkets, emphasized the cooling trend in the Bitcoin futures market in an analysis on July 30:

• Volume Bubble Map shows that although BTC has recently traded around $123,000, market activity has shifted from the overheated "red zone" to a more neutral, cooled-off area.
• Health Signal: Bitcoin steadily stands above $100,000, coupled with market turning point in speculative activities, indicating that the current market is driven more by natural demand (Spot accumulation) rather than excessive leverage, paving the way for a new bullish trend (Bullish Trend).

3. Market Status: High-level consolidation, resilience still exists

• Current Price: As of the time of writing $118,313, up 0.1% on the day.
• Recent Volatility: The trading range over the past seven days has been $115,184 - $119,568.
• Comparison with Historical Highs: Down 3.7% from the historical high of $122,838 set on July 14.
• Mid-term performance: Up 10% over the past month, demonstrating resilience during the recent Consolidation Phase.

4. Technical Analysis: Bollinger Bands Narrowing, Market Turning Point Imminent

(BTC daily chart | Source: TradingView)

• Bollinger Band Middle Band Support: On the daily chart, the Bitcoin price is closely aligned with the 20-day Bollinger Band middle band (currently around $118,327), indicating mild bullish pressure.
• Volatility Contraction: Recently, the Bollinger Bands bandwidth has been continuously narrowing (Band Narrowing), indicating a decrease in volatility, and **narrowing is often accompanied by a breakout (Breakout).
• RSI Neutral to Strong: Relative Strength Index (RSI) reports 59.32, in the neutral range but showing some upward momentum.
• Key Resistance: $119,900 (upper band boundary of the Bollinger Bands) is a key level that long positions need to overcome. If successfully broken, it is expected to initiate a new rise, with a target of challenging $123,000.
• Risk Warning: If the price breaks below $116,700 (Bollinger Band lower band boundary), the current bullish structure will fail, potentially opening up deeper correction space.

Conclusion: Bitcoin has shown strong resilience in the historical high area, with positive signals from the on-chain MVRV ratio resonating with the cooling of speculation in the futures market, suggesting that the market may be transitioning from a leverage-driven phase to a healthy spot demand-driven phase. The extreme narrowing of the Bollinger Bands in the technical aspect indicates that a directional choice is approaching, and the contest for the resistance level at $119,900 will be a key factor in determining the outcome between bulls and bears. If a successful breakout occurs, it is expected to challenge and even refresh the historical high; conversely, if the critical support at $116,700 is lost, caution should be exercised regarding short-term adjustment risks. The depth and sustainability of Spot Accumulation will be the core factor in determining whether Bitcoin can initiate the next stage of a major upward wave.