Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC long positions aim for $122,000, but seasonal factors in the third quarter may hinder the breakthrough.

Bitcoin briefly fell below $117,000 earlier this week, wiping out the internal liquidity accumulated over the weekend in the $117,000 to $119,000 range. This liquidity absorption is usually a precursor to significant price fluctuations, while over $100 million in long positions were liquidated. However, the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart still provides dynamic support, helping to reduce the risk of recent pullbacks.

Currently, the only clear buying liquidity is located in the $114,500 area, which skews the short-term trend upwards. The next resistance zone is in the range of $120,000 to $122,000, where sell orders and stop-loss orders are concentrated. At the same time, the daily supply zone from $121,400 to $123,200 (previous resistance level) forms a significant technical confluence, indicating that Bitcoin may continue to seek to clear the external liquidity accumulated over the past two weeks.

(Source: Trading View)

The liquidation chart shows that up to $2 billion in short positions are at risk of being "squeezed" near the $121,600 mark, further reinforcing the short-term recovery trend.

Can Bitcoin break through 122,000 USD?

Although the short-term technical structure is favorable for recovery, in the long term, the bullish momentum is weakening. A double top formation may be forming near historical highs, reflecting buyer fatigue. If it fails to decisively break through the supply zone at $123,200, this bearish formation will be confirmed, thereby hindering the exploration of new price levels.

On-chain data also shows signs of caution. The daily RSI plummeted from 74.4 to 51.7, reflecting a decline in demand in the spot market. At the same time, daily trading volume has sharply dropped to 8.6 billion USD. Notably, funds flowing into Bitcoin spot ETFs have decreased by 80% over the past week, from 2.5 billion USD to 496 million USD, indicating a waning interest from institutional investors.

Although the open interest in the derivatives market remains high (45.6 billion USD), the surge in long positions indicates an overly optimistic market. Furthermore, currently 96.9% of the BTC supply is in profit—this could be the source of short-term profit-taking pressure.

Seasonal factors are also unfavorable for long positions: historically, over 60% of Augusts have ended with losses, with an average return rate of only 2.56%. Coupled with on-chain signs of weakness—such as a decline in active addresses and trading volume—the possibility of a pullback in the coming month cannot be ruled out.

(Source: Coinglass)

However, the situation may change as early as this week. The White House is expected to release a cryptocurrency strategic report on Wednesday, which may include a Bitcoin reserve framework and a Delta neutral accumulation strategy—both of which could trigger spot ETFs and large-scale BTC hoarding.

(Source: Axel Adler Jr.)

In addition, everyone's attention is focused on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Although the market expects that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates, if Chairman Powell issues a dovish tone, especially hinting at a possible easing of policy in September, the market may react to the expectations, driving Bitcoin to break through $123,000 and set a new high.