Gate Research Institute: BTC continues to reach new highs, ATR strategy steadily profits over 200%

Introduction

This quantitative biweekly report (from July 1 to July 14, 2025) focuses on the market performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum, systematically analyzing key indicators such as long-short ratio, contract open interest, and funding rates to provide a quantitative interpretation of the overall market situation. This issue's quantitative strategy module emphasizes the practical application of the "ATR Volatility Channel Strategy" among the top ten projects by market capitalization in the cryptocurrency space (excluding stablecoins), systematically explaining its strategy logic, signal determination mechanism, and execution process. Through parameter optimization and historical backtesting validation, the strategy shows good stability and execution discipline in trend identification and risk control. Compared to simply holding BTC and ETH, this strategy performs better in terms of improving returns and controlling drawdowns, providing a practical reference framework for quantitative trading.

Summary

• In the past two weeks, the overall cryptocurrency market has shown a bullish trend, with BTC continuously breaking through and reaching new historical highs. The capital structure and technical patterns are performing steadily, becoming the main focus of the market; ETH, on the other hand, is consolidating with weak momentum and trading volume, and market participants' willingness to chase prices is limited.
• Based on the long-short ratio and contract positions, BTC sentiment is neutral to bullish, while ETH funds are mainly in a wait-and-see approach. Although leveraged participation has slightly increased, the funding rate still fluctuates around the zero axis, indicating that the overall market sentiment is cautious.
• The liquidation structure shows that the rise of BTC is accompanied by short liquidations rather than long positions chasing higher, indicating a rational market rhythm and a foundation for sustained upward movement.
• In terms of policy, the United States has extended tax cuts, clarified the review process for cryptocurrency ETFs, and initiated legislative procedures for "Crypto Week," providing support for market liquidity and confidence.
• Quantitative analysis focuses on the "ATR Volatility Channel Strategy", achieving a cumulative return of over 200% in the XRP cryptocurrency through range breakout logic, demonstrating strong short-term trading potential.

Market Overview

In order to systematically present the funding behavior and changes in trading structure of the current cryptocurrency market, this report approaches from five key dimensions: the price volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the long-short trading ratio (LSR), the contract open interest, the funding rate, and market liquidation data. These five indicators cover price trends, funding sentiment, and risk conditions, and can comprehensively reflect the trading intensity and structural characteristics of the current market. The following will analyze the latest changes in each indicator since July 1:

1. Analysis of Price Volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum

According to CoinGecko data, BTC has shown a steady upward trend, starting from around 110,000 USDT at the beginning of the month, continuously breaking through key technical resistance levels, and reaching a historic high of 123,000 USDT on July 14, demonstrating strong bullish momentum. The short-term moving averages maintain a bullish arrangement, and the MACD momentum continues to expand, with the overall technical structure remaining healthy. In terms of trading volume, there is a significant increase during the upward phase, and the volume converges gently during pullbacks, indicating that market confidence is still present. In contrast, while ETH started to rebound at the end of June, it fell into sideways consolidation after reaching a swing high of 3,065 USDT on July 11. Although the price is still within an ascending trend channel, the MACD shows signs of momentum divergence, and short-term upward momentum has weakened, with the market's willingness to chase prices being relatively conservative. Trading volume has been continuously decreasing since July 12, indicating an increase in market wait-and-see sentiment, and a new breakthrough force has yet to form.

The policy continues to release positive signals. On July 4th, Trump officially signed the "Too Big to Fail" Act, extending tax cuts for businesses and individuals, and increasing defense and infrastructure spending, boosting interest in risk assets. Although mid-term inflation pressures still need to be monitored, it is expected to enhance liquidity in the cryptocurrency market in the short term. On the regulatory front, on July 7th, the SEC released guidance on crypto ETFs, clarifying the filing process and review standards. Institutions like Fidelity and Grayscale are gradually submitting additional documents to support the compliant expansion of on-chain asset ETFs. Starting July 14th, the U.S. Congress will kick off "Crypto Week," reviewing several key legislations including stablecoin regulation (GENIUS Act), definition of regulatory authority (Clarity Act), and anti-CBDC legislation, with overall market sentiment leaning positive.

Overall, BTC has recently continued to reach new highs, with a solid technical structure and trading momentum, showing a robust upward trend; ETH, on the other hand, is consolidating at high levels with waning momentum, exhibiting relatively conservative short-term performance. Meanwhile, the United States continues to release favorable policies on both the fiscal and regulatory fronts, significantly boosting market expectations, which is expected to inject more liquidity and compliance confidence into crypto assets, supporting the overall trend to remain bullish.

Figure 1: BTC continuously broke through key technical resistance levels and reached a historic high of 123,000 USDT on July 14; ETH's short-term upward momentum weakened, and the market's willingness to chase gains is relatively conservative.

In terms of volatility, BTC has experienced several brief expansions while continuously reaching new highs, but the overall pace remains steady, indicating a strong willingness of main funds to intervene and a clear main trend in the market. In contrast, ETH's volatility has rapidly increased since July 12, reaching a peak on July 14, reflecting a higher level of uncertainty and speculation regarding ETH's subsequent movements, with fund operations leaning more towards trading and exploratory actions. Overall, both BTC and ETH's volatility are at historically low to moderate levels, but ETH's volatility has been heating up, suggesting that short-term volatility risks still need to be monitored, and if the subsequent volume aligns, it may lead to a directional choice.

Figure 2: The volatility rhythm of BTC is relatively stable, while the volatility of ETH significantly increased in mid-July, reflecting the market's divergence and rising exploratory sentiment regarding its breakout direction.

In the past two weeks, the overall cryptocurrency market has continued to show a bullish trend. BTC has performed strongly, steadily advancing, breaking through key technical levels, and reaching a historical high, with both its funding structure and technical patterns remaining healthy. Although ETH has also rebounded simultaneously, it is consolidating in a range near its recent highs, with momentum recovery relatively slow, and market sentiment is turning cautious, with weak willingness to chase prices. In terms of volatility, BTC's overall rhythm remains stable, only briefly increasing on July 14 before quickly retreating; ETH's volatility, on the other hand, spiked multiple times in mid-July, indicating that there remains significant divergence in market expectations regarding its subsequent direction, with trading behavior being more short-term and exploratory. On the policy front, both the U.S. Treasury and regulators have released signals favorable for the market, supporting short-term liquidity and risk appetite, which is expected to continue strengthening the mid-term upward basis of the market.

2. Analysis of the long-short ratio (LSR) of Bitcoin and Ethereum trading volume

The Long/Short Taker Size Ratio (LSR) is a key indicator for measuring the trading volume of long versus short orders in the market, and is typically used to assess market sentiment and the strength of trends. When LSR is greater than 1, it indicates that the volume of active buying (taking long positions) is greater than that of active selling (taking short positions), suggesting that the market is more inclined towards long positions and sentiment is bullish.

According to Coinglass data, the price of BTC continues to rise strongly and reached a historic high on July 14, during which the long-short ratio (LSR) has generally remained at a relatively neutral to bullish level. Although the long-short ratio peaked at close to 1.15 on July 11, indicating a warming short-term optimistic sentiment in the market, this level only lasted for about a day before quickly retracting, showing that chasing prices at high levels is still cautious. However, since July 10, the long-short ratio has overall rebounded above 1, and even though it briefly fell below during this time, it still reflects a certain level of confidence in the mid-term trend of BTC.

The price of ETH has also steadily rebounded to around 3,000 USDT, with the long-short ratio mostly oscillating in the range of 0.95 to 1.05, lacking significant directional breakthroughs, indicating that funds remain cautious and observant in their high-level positioning. Overall, the fund momentum of BTC is more aligned with its price trends, while ETH shows a hesitant pattern on both the trading and sentiment fronts, with short-term momentum release still appearing insufficient.【6】

Figure 3: BTC price continues to rise strongly and refreshed its historical high on July 14, during which the long-short ratio remained at a relatively neutral and slightly bullish level.

Figure 4: ETH price steadily rebounds to around 3,000 USDT, with the long-short ratio oscillating within the range of 0.95 to 1.05, lacking a clear directional breakthrough.

3. Analysis of Contract Position Amount

According to Coinglass data, the contract positions of BTC and ETH have risen simultaneously, indicating a significant rebound in overall market leverage participation. The position amount of BTC has rapidly increased from around 70 billion USD at the beginning of July to 86 billion USD, an increase of more than 20%; the contract position of ETH has climbed from around 33 billion USD to 42 billion USD, with an increase of nearly 30%. Among them, the growth rate of ETH has accelerated since July 5, with the position amount hitting new highs, showing that although the spot momentum is slowing down, leveraged funds are actively entering the market to position for a rebound.

Overall, both BTC and ETH show signs of increasing leverage enthusiasm, accompanied by rising prices and favorable policy catalysts, leading to a significant recovery in market risk appetite. However, it is important to note that the current position level is approaching relatively high levels for the year. If subsequent price fluctuations expand, it may trigger concentrated liquidations or sharp volatility. It is advisable to continuously monitor changes in leveraged capital and liquidation risks.

Figure 5: The contract positions of BTC and ETH are rising in sync, indicating a noticeable recovery in overall market leverage participation.

4. Funding Rate

In the past two weeks, the funding rates for BTC and ETH have fluctuated slightly around the zero axis, indicating that the market is in a stalemate between bullish and bearish forces. Investors are relatively restrained in chasing upward trends, and leveraged funds have not yet fully entered the market. Against the backdrop of a sustained upward trend, funding rates have not shown significant expansion, reflecting that the current rise is mainly driven by spot or low-leverage funds, rather than overly relying on contract bullish momentum. This helps to reduce short-term bubble risks, and the overall structure remains relatively robust.

From the specific trend observation, although the funding rate has repeatedly turned negative for short periods, the recovery speed is relatively fast, indicating that while the bears attempted to suppress the market, they were unable to form sustained pressure and did not trigger a large-scale liquidation wave; the overall market resilience remains strong. Especially during the period from July 10 to 13, the contract positions for BTC and ETH rose simultaneously, but the funding rate remained moderate, further indicating that the market's increased positions are more inclined towards cautious, non-aggressive capital involvement.

In addition, from the perspective of cyclical changes, the funding rate of BTC is more stable compared to ETH, indicating that it continues to be favored by institutions and stable funds as a "safe-haven leader"; on the other hand, ETH experiences more frequent inflows and outflows due to significant market divergence regarding its future trends, resulting in slightly higher volatility, reflecting its ongoing dominance in the trading phase.

Overall, while the funding situation has not provided significant support, it has also not posed notable pressure. If the funding rates turn to a sustained positive value in the future, combined with increased volume and upward movement, it will become a catalytic signal for further market breakthroughs, which is worth continuous monitoring.

Figure 6: The funding rates of BTC and ETH fluctuate slightly around the zero axis, indicating that the market is in a stage of stalemate between bullish and bearish forces.

5. Cryptocurrency Contract Liquidation Chart

According to data from Coinglass, the crypto market has shown a relatively orderly pattern of long and short battles over the past two weeks, without systemic imbalances or extreme sell-offs. The overall amount of liquidations for long positions has been relatively low, and the volatility has not been significant, reflecting a conservative pace of accumulation for bulls. The influx of funds chasing highs has not been large-scale, and the market has not been excessively aggressive during the upward movement, with leverage usage remaining mild. This situation indicates that the price increase is mainly driven by spot buying or steady accumulation, while also reducing the systemic risk of cascading liquidations during high-level fluctuations or pullbacks.

Relatively speaking, short liquidations significantly increased from July 9 to 13, especially on July 10, when both BTC and ETH experienced a breakthrough surge, with the amount of short liquidations reaching a peak for the period, approaching 1 billion dollars, indicating that short bets were forced to close after failing. Such liquidations are usually accompanied by a strong bullish trend, reflecting the market's recognition of upward momentum and providing key liquidity support for further price increases. Although short liquidations eased in the following days, they remained at a high range, indicating that some market participants were still trying to 'top out' the market, and bearish sentiment had not completely receded.

Structurally, the current concentration of liquidations is not extreme, and the dynamic between long and short positions maintains tension. This indicates that while the market has a clear direction, it has not yet entered an overheating phase. This phase of short squeezes and gradual cleanups helps establish a healthier foundation for upward movement, allowing prices to maintain momentum rather than experiencing a rapid decline after a one-time surge. Overall, the current liquidation structure and rhythm in the futures market reflect a cautious mindset among market participants, with a moderately bullish but not overly optimistic outlook for the future, suggesting a certain potential for sustained upward movement.

Figure 7: On July 10, both BTC and ETH experienced a breakthrough rise, with the amount of short liquidations reaching a stage high, approaching 1 billion dollars.

In the current context of structural bullishness and restrained capital entry, although the price trend has potential for continuation, short-term volatility risks must also be monitored. The market rhythm is becoming differentiated, and investors need to utilize more precise technical tools to master trading rhythm and risk control. Therefore, the following content will focus on the ATR (Average True Range) within quantitative technical indicators, exploring its practical effectiveness in capturing entry and stop-loss opportunities during a bullish oscillating market. We will center on the "ATR Volatility Channel Strategy," backtesting its performance across different cryptocurrencies and various volatility ranges, assessing its adaptability and stability in controlling drawdowns and amplifying trend gains.

Quantitative Analysis - ATR Volatility Channel Strategy

（Disclaimer: All predictions in this article are based on analysis results derived from historical data and market trends, for reference only, and should not be considered as investment advice or guarantees of future market trends. Investors should fully consider risks and make cautious decisions when undertaking related investments.）

1. Strategy Overview

This strategy is a short-term trend strategy based on Average True Range (ATR or ADR) for breakout entry and static take-profit and stop-loss exit. ATR is a technical indicator proposed by Welles Wilder, used to measure market volatility. By calculating the average true range over a certain period, it reflects the level of price fluctuation activity and is often used to determine entry timing and set take-profit and stop-loss zones.

The design of ATR takes into account situations of price gaps or severe fluctuations, first defining "True Range (TR)" as the maximum of the following three values:

• The highest price of the day minus the lowest price (High - Low)
• The absolute value of the difference between the highest price of the day and the previous day's closing price (|High - Previous Close|)
• The absolute value of the difference between the lowest price of the day and the previous day's closing price (|Low - Previous Close|)

Then take the average of the TR for the past N days (commonly 14 days) to obtain the ATR value, which serves as a quantitative measure of the current market volatility.

The strategy calculates the current market volatility range, and once the price breaks through the reasonable range, it is considered confirmation of market direction, triggering a trading signal. It controls risk and locks in profits using a fixed ratio for take-profit and stop-loss mechanisms. Combined with dynamic take-profit and stop-loss logic, this strategy helps to capture profits during trend rebounds or to promptly cut losses in case of misjudgment, making it suitable for seizing short-term trading opportunities in a fluctuating and slightly reversing market environment.

This backtesting focuses on the top ten cryptocurrency projects by market capitalization (excluding stablecoins), covering mainstream public chains and high liquidity assets. It tests the adaptability and practicality of the strategy under different currencies and market stages, verifying its feasibility and robustness in live deployment.

2. Core Parameter Settings

3. Strategy Logic and Operational Mechanism

Entry Conditions

• In a no position state, if the current closing price is greater than (the day's lowest price + atr_period), a buy signal is triggered.

Entry Conditions:

• ATR Retracement Trigger: If the current price is below (the daily high - atr_period), it is believed that the market may weaken, triggering a closing signal.
• Stop Loss: If the price falls back to the purchase price * (1 - stop_loss_percent), a forced stop loss will be triggered.
• Take Profit: If the price rises to the buy price * (1 + take_profit_percent), trigger the take profit exit.

Practical Example Chart

• Trading signal triggered The image below shows the XRP/USDT 6-hour K-line chart at the time the strategy triggered entry on July 9, 2025. The price breaks upward through the upper boundary of the "previous low point + ATR" range, effectively breaking out of the consolidation range, which meets the entry condition of the strategy for "breaking through the reasonable intraday volatility range." At the same time, MA5 and MA10 are showing a golden cross upward trend, indicating that short-term momentum is strengthening. The trading volume is also increasing, validating that the breakout has volume support, and after the price leaves the dense area of moving averages, it has certain continuity. Based on this, the strategy triggers a long position signal, managing the position with a static 1% stop loss and dynamic high point pullback take profit, aiming to capture the subsequent trend extension.

Figure 8: XRP/USDT Strategy Entry Position Diagram (July 9, 2025)

• Trading Actions and Results After a continuous rise in the previous phase, XRP's price once reached 2.975 USDT, and then entered a high-level consolidation zone. As the price oscillated and weakened, it eventually fell below the dynamic support line set by the strategy, "high point - ATR" (i.e., ATR retracement trigger condition), at this point, the system automatically executed a closing operation. As seen from the chart, although the short-term moving averages are still in a bullish arrangement, the upward momentum has slowed down, and the trading volume has not been able to continue to expand, indicating that market bullish momentum is gradually weakening. This exit signal is based on "price breaking below the lower boundary of the ADR range," which is part of the dynamic risk control mechanism in the strategy, effectively helping to exit in a timely manner when the trend weakens, preserving the profits gained from the earlier rise, and avoiding potential risks brought by high-level oscillation or reversal. In the future, if it can further combine dynamic profit-taking or trend-following mechanisms, it is expected to continuously optimize holding efficiency and enhance the overall strategy's profit potential and capital utilization efficiency.

Figure 9: XRP/USDT strategy exit position diagram (July 12, 2025)

Through the above practical example, we intuitively demonstrate the entry and exit logic and dynamic risk control mechanism of the ATR-based breakout and pullback strategy in trending markets. This strategy uses the ATR indicator to assess reasonable volatility ranges, decisively entering when the price breaks above the upper boundary of the range to capture trend initiation signals; and exiting in a timely manner when the price retraces to the support lower boundary of "high - ATR", achieving the locking of phase gains.

While controlling for drawdowns, the strategy successfully avoided the profit retracement that may arise from high-level fluctuations, demonstrating its defensive capabilities and trading discipline during the trend exhaustion phase. This case not only verifies the executability and stability of the ATR strategy in real market conditions but also provides an empirical basis for future optimization of strategies that combine dynamic profit-taking, trend following, or multi-factor signals.

4. Practical Application Examples

Parameter Backtest Settings To find the best parameter combination, we conducted a systematic grid search over the following range:

• atr_period: 2 to 20 (step size of 1)
• stop_loss_percent : 1% to 2% (step size of 0.5%)
• take_profit_percent: 10% to 16% (step size of 5%)

Taking the top ten projects by cryptocurrency market capitalization (excluding stablecoins) as an example, this article backtested 6-hour candlestick data from May 2024 to July 2025, testing a total of 114 sets of parameter combinations, and selected the five groups with the best annualized return performance. Evaluation criteria include annualized return, Sharpe ratio, maximum drawdown, and ROMAD (return to maximum drawdown ratio), to comprehensively measure the strategy's stability and risk-adjusted performance under different market conditions.

Figure 10: Comparison Table of the Performance of Five Optimal Strategies

Strategy Logic Description When the program detects that the price has broken through the current low point plus the ATR (Average True Range) forming a dynamic upper range, it is considered that the market has entered a short-term momentum release phase, and the strategy will immediately trigger a buy operation. This logic aims to capture the key breakout point at the beginning of a trend, using ATR to measure reasonable volatility, and judging that the market may turn into a one-sided trend through strong price breakout. After entering the market, the system will combine dynamic profit-taking and fixed stop-loss mechanisms to enhance risk control performance. If the subsequent price falls back to the dynamic support area of "high point - ATR" or reaches the set stop-loss ratio, the system will automatically execute an exit operation to timely lock in existing profits or control risks.

Taking XRP as an example, the settings used in this strategy are as follows:

• atr_period= 16 (used to calculate the price volatility range)
• stop_loss_percent = 1%
• take_profit_percent = 10%

This logic combines price breakout signals with fixed ratio risk control rules, making it suitable for market environments with clear trends and distinct wave structures. It effectively controls drawdowns while following trends, enhancing the stability of trades and the overall quality of returns.

Performance and Results Analysis The backtest period is from May 2024 to July 2025. The strategy applies ATR (Average True Range) breakout and drawdown risk control logic to the top ten cryptocurrency projects by market capitalization (excluding stablecoins). The overall cumulative return performance is robust, outperforming the Buy and Hold strategies of BTC and ETH. As can be seen in the chart, the strategy return curves for XRP, DOGE, and SUI are continuously rising, with cumulative gains exceeding 150%. The strategy has successfully captured the initiation of phase trends multiple times and effectively secured profits through the strategy's drawdown mechanism, demonstrating a clear trading rhythm and strict risk control. Notably, the XRP strategy has shown steady upward performance since October 2024, with limited drawdowns, and long-term returns outperforming other cryptocurrencies, with cumulative strategy returns exceeding 200%.

In contrast, the Buy and Hold strategy for BTC and ETH showed significant fluctuations during the same period, with ETH experiencing a maximum drawdown of over 50%. The ATR-based strategy model has strong defensive capabilities during oscillation and pullback phases, allowing for timely exits from high positions to avoid deep corrections, gradually achieving stable accumulation. Additionally, from the performance of TRX and ADA strategies, although the overall volatility is low, they remain in the positive return zone, validating the adaptability and robustness of the strategy under different volatility assets.

Overall, the ATR-based range breakout strategy performs well in terms of profitability, drawdown resistance, and applicability across multiple currencies, demonstrating practical deployment value. In the future, it can be further combined with momentum indicators, volume changes, or trend confirmation mechanisms to optimize entry quality and exit timing, thereby enhancing the strategy's trading efficiency and performance in different market structures.

Figure 11: Comparison of the cumulative return rates over the past year between five optimal parameter strategies and the holding strategies for BTC and ETH.

5. Trading Strategy Summary

The ATR Volatility Channel strategy constructs a dynamic breakout range based on the Average True Range (ATR), combining fixed stop-loss and dynamic take-profit mechanisms. It demonstrates good risk control capabilities and robust profit performance across various mainstream cryptocurrency assets. During the backtesting period, this strategy successfully captured the early stages of upward price breakouts multiple times, particularly excelling during consolidation and trend reversal phases, with overall performance significantly outperforming traditional Buy and Hold strategies.

From the backtesting results of multiple cryptocurrencies, the strategy combinations involving SUI, XRP, and DOGE have performed remarkably, with the highest cumulative return exceeding 200%. At the same time, it effectively avoided the deep drawdown risks that assets like ETH may encounter during the holding period. This further validates the strategy's adaptability and stability in real trading environments. It is worth mentioning that although the win rate for most cryptocurrencies under this strategy is generally below 50%, the asymmetric profit and loss structure, coupled with a stringent risk control mechanism, allows for the continuous accumulation of positive returns even under conditions of a lower win rate, demonstrating the strategy's high effectiveness in loss control and position management.

Overall, the ATR strategy has achieved a good balance in controlling drawdown, improving trading efficiency, and enhancing the flexibility of capital usage, making it particularly suitable for application in high volatility and high uncertainty market environments. In the future, Bollinger Bands, volume changes, or volatility filtering mechanisms can be further introduced to optimize entry signal quality, and expand to multi-timeframe and multi-asset quantitative trading system architectures, continuously enhancing the strategy's stability and scalability.

Summary

From July 1 to July 14, 2025, the overall crypto market continued on a bullish trend, with BTC performing particularly strongly as the main asset, consistently pushing higher and repeatedly breaking historical highs. The technical structure and capital flows appeared healthy, indicating that major funds were actively positioning themselves. In contrast, while ETH remained in an upward channel, its movement was more volatile, with trading momentum relatively weak and market confidence still lacking, leading to a conservative willingness to chase prices. From the perspective of long-short trading ratios and changes in contract positions, BTC LSR mostly stayed above 1, with an overall sentiment leaning towards neutral and bullish; ETH, however, showed sideways fluctuations, with funds taking a more wait-and-see attitude. Contract positions for both assets rose, with ETH seeing a leading growth rate, reflecting the market's expectations for its rebound potential. However, the funding rate overall still fluctuated around the zero axis without showing a trend amplification, indicating that while there was a willingness to leverage long positions, the overall market sentiment remained cautious.

In terms of liquidation structure, BTC has seen significant short liquidations accompanying its breakthrough of key levels, providing essential liquidity support for the upward trend; the low level of long liquidations indicates a rational market chasing higher prices, reflecting a healthy structure. On the policy front, the U.S. has released several positive signals in July, including the extension of the tax reduction bill, clarification of crypto ETF review guidelines, and the initiation of the "Crypto Week" legislative process, all of which enhance market confidence in the compliance path and liquidity environment. Overall, the current market structure is robust, with positive policy expectations, BTC continuing its upward trend, and ETH having room for rebound; however, the continuation of the trend still requires further alignment of trading volume and market confidence. In the short term, it is advisable to focus on funding rates and liquidation dynamics as leading indicators for trend continuation and risk release.

In this structurally bullish environment with restrained capital inflow, although the price has the potential for trend continuation, the short-term volatility risk cannot be overlooked. Against this backdrop, the ATR (Average True Range) volatility channel strategy demonstrates good advantages for medium to short-term trading. This strategy identifies breakout signals through dynamic volatility ranges and combines fixed stop-loss and retracement take-profit mechanisms to effectively control risk. Backtesting results show that the strategy performs outstandingly on mainstream coins such as SUI, XRP, and DOGE, with the highest cumulative return exceeding 200%, while maintaining good overall drawdown control. Although the win rate is generally below 50%, the strategy can still maintain stable positive returns thanks to clear exit logic and a good profit-loss structure.

Overall, this strategy demonstrates a good balance between profit potential, robustness, and execution efficiency, possessing certain practical application value. If it can later incorporate more quantitative factors and risk control mechanisms, it may enhance its adaptability and scalability in multi-period and multi-currency environments.
Reference Material:

1. CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/
2. Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
3. Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT
4. tvbs, https://news.tvbs.com.tw/world/2920712
5. Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-secs-guidance-is-first-step-toward-rules-governing-crypto-etfs-2025-07-07/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
6. Coinglass, https://www.coinglass.com/LongShortRatio
7. Coinglass, https://www.coinglass.com/BitcoinOpenInterest?utm_source=chatgpt.com
8. Gate, https://www.gate.com/futures_market_info/BTC_USD/capital_rate_history
9. Gate, https://www.gate.com/futures/introduction/funding-rate-history?from=USDT-M&contract=ETH_USDT
10. Coinglass, https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/Liquidations

Disclaimer Investing in the cryptocurrency market involves high risks. Users are advised to conduct independent research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products being purchased before making any investment decisions. Gate shall not be liable for any losses or damages arising from such investment decisions.