Can Bitcoin Reach a New All-Time High in May?

May 2025, Bitcoin price After a gap of three months, Bitcoin once again surpassed the $100,000 mark, sparking discussions in the market about whether it can break through its all-time high. As of May 9th, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated around $103,000, just a step away from the historical peak of $109,000 set in January. This article will analyze the May trend of Bitcoin from multiple dimensions such as technical indicators, macroeconomics, market sentiment, etc., providing data-driven decision references for investors.

Technical indicators show strong upward momentum

MVRV Z-Score and cycle main chart indicate potential

The MVRV Z-Score (Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) shows that the current valuation level of Bitcoin is similar to that of the 2017 cycle, and there is still room for potential gains by hundreds of percentage points. Combined with the main chart of the Bitcoin cycle, its “overvaluation” cap has risen to $190,000, indicating that the market has not yet entered an overheating phase.

Pi Cycle Oscillator releases bullish signal

By tracking the 111-day and 350-day moving averages, the Pi Cycle Oscillator shows an expanding gap between the two averages, indicating a bullish momentum recovery. Historical data shows that this signal typically accompanies a strong growth phase lasting several months.

Short-term technical patterns and support levels

Recently, Bitcoin has broken through the neckline resistance of the “inverted head and shoulders” pattern and is firmly above the 200-day moving average (about $95,000), with strong technical support. If it breaks the previous high of $109,000, it may open up an upward channel towards $120,000 to $150,000.

Macroeconomic fundamentals and favorable policies overlap

The Fed’s rate cut expectations are heating up

The market generally expects the Fed to continue its rate-cutting cycle in 2025, with the low-interest-rate environment driving funds into high-risk assets. Historical data shows that Bitcoin has a negative correlation with the US Dollar Index (DXY), and a weaker dollar will further boost the coin price.

Regulatory policies are shifting towards being more friendly

The Trump administration nominated an SEC chairman who supports cryptocurrencies and plans to repeal the SAB121 Act which restricts financial institutions from participating in the crypto market. Loosening policies may attract traditional financial institutions to enter the market faster, bringing in billions of dollars in incremental funds.

Geopolitics and market sentiment recovery

The tariff agreement between the UK and the US has eased concerns about trade frictions, and there is a preference for risk assets. At the same time, institutional investors continue to increase their holdings, as the world’s largest Bitcoin holding institution, Strategy, recently purchased 1895 Bitcoins at an average price of $95,000, with a total holding of over 550,000 Bitcoins, worth more than $57 billion.

Halving effect and supply-demand relationship

The long-term impact of the fourth halving

The Bitcoin halving event in April 2024 will reduce the block reward to 3.125 coins, with the new supply decreasing combined with ETF capital inflows, resulting in a supply-demand imbalance. Historical data shows that typically there is a price peak within 12-18 months after halving, with increases of 8300%, 288%, and 540% after the halving in 2012, 2016, and 2020 respectively.

Institutional demand and scarcity highlighted

After the spot Bitcoin ETF was approved, the institutional holdings ratio continues to rise. With a current circulation of only 19.7 million coins, if we calculate based on the conservative estimate of 1.5 million annual net inflows, there may be ‘liquidity squeeze’ in 2025, driving prices to accelerate upwards.

Assessment of the possibility of breaking new highs in May

Short-term fluctuations and key resistance levels

Although Bitcoin broke through $103,000 on May 8, attention needs to be paid to the historical resistance level of $109,000. Technical analysts pointed out that if it stabilizes above $105,000, it may quickly test $120,000; if there is a pullback, the $85,000 to $90,000 range will form strong support.

Market sentiment and black swan risk

The current market sentiment index (Fear & Greed Index) is in the “greed” zone, and we need to be alert to short-term pullbacks caused by profit-taking. In addition, the uncertainty of the US Senate’s investigation into Trump’s crypto activities and regulatory rules may cause volatility.

Institutional forecasts and historical patterns

Multiple institutions raised their May target prices:

• Cryptorphic predicts a possible reach of $156,000 by May 27th;
• LiteFinance technical model shows that if it breaks $10.9k, the short-term target is $12.7k;
• The cyclical law shows that the ‘exponential growth phase’ after the halving often begins in May-June, which is highly coincident with the current time window.

Conclusion: May may be a key turning point

Based on comprehensive technical indicators, macro environment, and market supply and demand, Bitcoin is likely to break through the historical high of $109,000 in May. If successful, it may initiate a new bull market phase towards $120,000 to $150,000. Investors need to focus on the policy trends of the Federal Reserve, changes in institutional holdings, and regulatory developments, and seize the opportunity to layout on dips during short-term fluctuations. History may not repeat itself, but it rhymes. May 2025 could be a key milestone for Bitcoin’s journey towards ‘digital gold’ status.