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Data: Whenever the cumulative rate cut reaches 2%, the S&P 500 will average pump 13.9%.
On August 24, analysts stated that the U.S. labor market is rapidly deteriorating. In the latest data, the employment figures for May and June were revised down by -258,000 jobs, which is more than the total population of Scottsdale, Arizona. So far this year, U.S. jobs have been revised down by 461,000, and many leading indicators of the labor market are collapsing. All of this means that the Fed will lower interest rates to curb inflation; however, with inflation rebounding, those without assets will face a situation similar to the post-pandemic era. Wage growth will lag behind inflation, and the wealth gap will widen. Historically, whenever the Fed has lowered interest rates to below 2%, in the past 20 instances, the S&P 500 index has averaged a rise of +13.9% in the following 12 months, and asset owners will celebrate like in 2021.