Retail Investor Status in the Crypto Market: The Bull Run Has Arrived, But Why Is It Hard to Find the Bull Flavor?

Recently, the crypto market has shown a bull run, but many investment groups are unusually quiet. An investor raised a question on social media: "The bull run has come, why is everyone so quiet in the groups?" Someone responded: "Because of empty positions and short orders."

Investors who experienced the last bull-bear cycle should have made substantial profits in this round of market conditions, but that is not the case. A full-time trader stated that he has not made any profits since a well-known individual released the relevant token.

According to Mark, a partner at a certain capital firm, 90% of retail investors have not made a profit in this bull run. In light of this situation, some investors have begun to adjust their strategies. Some have stated that compared to the previous cycle where the main strategy was to "hold on dead", this round is more inclined towards swing trading, and there is a need to constantly learn new things, with a faster pace.

However, most retail investors are still unaware of the changes in investment logic. With a large influx of institutional funds into the crypto market, mainstream coins are reaching new highs, and from the perspectives of capital scale, technological acceptance, and participation level, this is no longer a "retail-friendly" market. There are viewpoints suggesting that the dividend period for encryption may soon come to an end for retail investors, and this round might be the last cycle for retail investors.

This bull run is significantly different from previous ones. An experienced investor pointed out that this is no longer a market with widespread increases. Under the differentiation of various policies, capital, and factions, this bull run has taken a completely different path from before. He believes that the encryption industry is essentially a financial internet that develops various applications around finance, requiring a complete financial infrastructure and system.

Different investors have different views on the starting point and peak of this bull run. Some believe it started when a large asset management company officially approved the Bitcoin ETF, expecting it to peak in November; others think that the surge of popular tokens in the second half of last year is the starting point, expecting the market to reach its high in September.

Quantitative trader Chenghua discovered that this round of market conditions is different from previous ones: in the past, it was dominated by retail investor funds, and small coins surged vigorously; while this round has seen more mainstream funds entering, flowing towards Bitcoin and other mainstream coins.

Mark believes there are two main reasons why retail investors find it difficult to profit in this bull run: first, most retail investors still follow the logic of the last bull run, mainly holding small altcoins instead of mainstream coins; second, frequent portfolio changes and chasing spikes while cutting losses. He suggests that retail investors pay attention to mainstream coins and popular social tokens, but also points out that the future crypto market may tend toward a structure similar to the US stock market, where mainstream coins will be dominated by institutional funds, leaving limited opportunities for retail investors.

Hippo believes that, in addition to mainstream coins and popular social tokens, attention should also be paid to coins derived from trading derivatives. He suggests that retail investors first adjust their mindset, give up the fantasy of getting rich quickly, and focus on opportunities in mainstream coins with a potential increase of 3-5 times in each cycle.

Chenghua mentioned that in the last round, some retail investor-friendly low-risk projects, such as IPOs and inscriptions, have fewer opportunities in this round. He suggested considering quantitative trading or Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging strategies.

With the large-scale entry of institutional capital, the "institutionalization" of the crypto market has further deepened. Data shows that the amount of Bitcoin held by publicly listed companies has significantly increased, and the scale of Ethereum staking products on major trading platforms has surged. All of this indicates that the crypto market is no longer the exclusive playground of retail investors.

There are differing views on the future for retail investors. Some believe that the golden age of retail investors making money is over, but others remain optimistic, believing that the market is developing in an orderly and regulated direction, which means low-risk and high-reward opportunities for retail investors.

Ultimately, whether optimistic or pessimistic, what truly matters is the ability to keep up with the market, the insight to discover opportunities, and the execution power to seize those opportunities.